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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 16, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   34 36 38 39 39 39 40 40 41 41 41
Closed Higher   18 16 18 19 19 20 24 27 26 20 22
Exceeded High   15 14 11 16 18 18 22 24 22 17 18
Scenario Percentage   83% 88% 61% 84% 95% 90% 92% 89% 85% 85% 82%
Avg Max Increase   9.42% 7.48% 10.21% 11.72% 11.30% 13.82% 11.58% 11.02% 9.91% 11.05% 6.72%
Max Increase   28.65% 20.96% 14.74% 22.27% 27.85% 37.68% 29.56% 24.96% 28.31% 18.91% 13.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 14 23 15 19 16 18 16 15 15 13
Avg Max Decline   -1.38% -1.38% -2.09% -1.85% -1.95% -3.24% -2.19% -3.36% -3.02% -2.97% -1.42%
Max Decline   -4.92% -7.41% -9.42% -8.41% -9.24% -10.57% -14.27% -11.02% -9.71% -10.55% -4.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 5 13 5 7 8 9 9 10 7 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes      
Action   Yes No       Yes Yes Yes      
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   34 36 38 39 39 39 40 40 41 41 41
Closed Lower   16 20 20 20 20 19 16 13 15 21 19
Penetrated Low   9 17 19 17 13 11 9 8 8 15 11
Scenario Percentage   56% 85% 95% 85% 65% 58% 56% 62% 53% 71% 58%
Avg Max Decline   13.43% 10.74% 11.65% 14.55% 15.11% 18.76% 14.71% 13.86% 10.11% 11.15% 8.51%
Max Decline   43.39% 45.17% 38.13% 31.33% 38.92% 53.09% 55.28% 31.92% 21.18% 18.58% 16.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 16 18 20 18 18 13 13 20 15 15
Avg Max Increase   -1.92% -2.24% -2.52% -2.07% -2.72% -3.48% -4.08% -5.99% -4.35% -1.53% -2.38%
Max Increase   -9.16% -14.20% -6.80% -11.92% -9.25% -10.85% -10.55% -20.34% -10.62% -4.03% -7.85%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 8 8 10 7 9 12 8 14 4 3
2024 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes  
Action       Yes Yes No       Yes    
High 76.48 78.45 82.42 81.75 79.35 75.67 77.39 76.76 80.92 85.27 80.22  
Low 66.95 74.50 77.98 74.15 72.05 69.19 69.89 71.05 75.11 79.42 75.97  
Close/Last 76.48 77.87 79.83 77.21 74.87 71.69 74.64 75.53 80.89 80.61 78.27  

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