MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for July Crude Oil(NYM) as of Dec 06, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May |
| Tested Years | 36 | 37 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 42 | 42 | |
| Closed Higher | 25 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 20 | |
| Exceeded High | 22 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 15 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 88% | 80% | 94% | 67% | 84% | 100% | 95% | 92% | 92% | 88% | 75% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 7.70% | 9.62% | 6.73% | 9.66% | 12.20% | 11.25% | 13.17% | 12.20% | 10.97% | 9.57% | 8.98% | |
| Max Increase | 38.98% | 29.27% | 21.25% | 15.58% | 22.63% | 29.12% | 40.79% | 31.23% | 26.09% | 26.92% | 14.79% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 10 | 13 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.74% | -1.24% | -2.30% | -1.94% | -1.99% | -2.34% | -3.31% | -2.40% | -3.28% | -2.43% | -1.76% | |
| Max Decline | -12.27% | -5.67% | -12.09% | -8.73% | -8.47% | -8.56% | -11.08% | -14.39% | -11.47% | -7.16% | -4.51% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 11 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
