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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Crude Oil(NYM) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   35 36 38 38 39 39 40 40 40 41 41
Closed Higher   24 19 17 18 19 19 21 24 25 26 20
Exceeded High   21 15 17 12 16 19 20 22 23 23 15
Scenario Percentage   88% 79% 100% 67% 84% 100% 95% 92% 92% 88% 75%
Avg Max Increase   7.68% 9.85% 6.73% 9.66% 12.20% 11.25% 13.38% 12.18% 11.21% 9.57% 8.98%
Max Increase   38.98% 29.27% 21.25% 15.58% 22.63% 29.12% 40.79% 31.23% 26.09% 26.92% 14.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 13 12 21 15 17 16 17 15 10 13
Avg Max Decline   -1.69% -1.33% -2.30% -1.94% -1.99% -2.34% -3.23% -2.46% -3.39% -2.43% -1.76%
Max Decline   -12.27% -5.67% -12.09% -8.73% -8.47% -8.56% -11.08% -14.39% -11.47% -7.16% -4.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline   10 8 4 9 5 8 8 9 9 6 3
2023 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes         Yes  
Action   No     Yes No         Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   35 36 38 38 39 39 40 40 40 41 41
Closed Lower   11 17 21 20 20 20 19 16 15 14 21
Penetrated Low   7 11 17 19 17 13 11 8 9 8 14
Scenario Percentage   64% 65% 81% 95% 85% 65% 58% 50% 60% 57% 67%
Avg Max Decline   13.13% 12.90% 11.06% 12.11% 15.14% 15.76% 19.63% 17.42% 14.77% 10.81% 7.77%
Max Decline   25.80% 44.30% 46.58% 39.56% 32.04% 40.73% 55.60% 61.82% 37.63% 28.63% 24.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline   21 14 16 19 19 19 18 15 13 15 13
Avg Max Increase   -1.75% -2.13% -2.54% -2.41% -2.68% -3.54% -3.55% -5.00% -6.49% -4.47% -1.40%
Max Increase   -9.32% -10.99% -13.94% -7.00% -12.54% -11.80% -11.46% -11.25% -27.05% -10.98% -3.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 10 9 9 9 8 9 13 8 10 3
2023 Contract Condition     Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action     Yes No     No Yes Yes Yes   Not Yet
High 99.10 89.31 87.49 82.76 83.45 85.34 81.89 82.71 80.45 80.72 82.91 76.49
Low 85.84 77.29 79.65 70.51 74.25 73.72 71.24 73.28 72.94 64.66 73.79 63.89
Close/Last 86.79 86.84 82.83 72.30 79.25 80.05 79.83 79.13 76.90 75.73 76.61 68.09

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