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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 09, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   35 37 39 39 39 39 40 40 40 40 41
Closed Higher   20 23 21 18 18 19 19 22 24 25 26
Exceeded High   19 21 15 17 12 16 19 21 21 23 18
Scenario Percentage   95% 91% 71% 94% 67% 84% 100% 95% 88% 92% 69%
Avg Max Increase   7.32% 8.37% 10.86% 7.30% 10.09% 12.76% 11.74% 13.69% 13.30% 11.10% 7.45%
Max Increase   19.13% 43.12% 30.49% 22.29% 16.58% 23.16% 30.95% 45.35% 33.96% 27.52% 28.94%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 21 15 13 23 15 17 16 16 13 12
Avg Max Decline   -2.14% -2.71% -1.98% -2.24% -2.38% -2.19% -2.54% -3.30% -2.57% -3.23% -2.10%
Max Decline   -12.23% -12.62% -6.96% -11.29% -8.76% -8.80% -9.65% -11.76% -14.69% -10.69% -6.38%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 10 8 4 8 5 9 8 7 6 3
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes Yes No       Yes Yes Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   35 37 39 39 39 39 40 40 40 40 41
Closed Lower   15 14 18 21 21 20 21 18 16 15 15
Penetrated Low   11 10 10 17 20 17 13 10 8 11 7
Scenario Percentage   73% 71% 56% 81% 95% 85% 62% 56% 50% 73% 47%
Avg Max Decline   9.06% 12.09% 14.44% 11.76% 12.49% 15.79% 16.34% 21.58% 20.73% 17.97% 7.88%
Max Decline   30.84% 26.05% 44.79% 47.55% 40.74% 33.14% 42.29% 58.22% 85.59% 73.48% 18.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 20 16 16 19 18 18 17 14 12 12
Avg Max Increase   -0.94% -2.33% -2.75% -2.78% -2.63% -2.84% -3.90% -3.45% -5.25% -6.62% -2.00%
Max Increase   -3.83% -10.14% -13.33% -14.59% -7.31% -12.88% -12.23% -11.81% -11.53% -35.25% -6.80%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 12 8 9 6 10 8 11 13 8 3
2024 Contract Condition           Yes Yes Yes       Yes
Action           Yes Yes No       Yes
High 71.52 71.03 77.53 79.52 84.13 83.14 80.46 76.26 78.43 78.13 82.46 86.97
Low 62.65 64.90 67.83 75.12 78.71 75.08 72.42 69.06 70.11 71.47 76.07 80.70
Close/Last 65.76 69.02 77.43 78.84 81.12 78.04 75.47 72.12 75.35 76.81 82.42 81.93

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