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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   16 17 22 19 21 15 22 24 25 23 19
Exceeded High   13 13 12 16 14 11 19 21 17 22 14
Scenario Percentage   81% 76% 55% 84% 67% 73% 86% 88% 68% 96% 74%
Avg Max Increase   14.35% 12.84% 8.75% 10.96% 8.35% 10.05% 9.02% 7.93% 7.73% 6.12% 5.68%
Max Increase   64.95% 28.32% 31.72% 41.11% 17.13% 28.57% 28.07% 16.47% 30.76% 24.82% 19.70%
Avg Days To Max Increase   11 17 15 16 23 16 18 21 11 7 7
Avg Max Decline   -0.67% -2.51% -2.63% -3.04% -2.27% -2.85% -2.43% -1.74% -3.62% -1.66% -1.18%
Max Decline   -4.17% -10.75% -10.29% -9.93% -12.15% -8.72% -9.03% -5.24% -16.83% -10.93% -4.71%
Avg Days to Max Decline   4 6 13 9 10 8 11 12 9 8 2
2017 Contract Condition         Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes    
Action         Yes No   Yes Yes No    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   27 28 23 26 23 29 22 21 20 22 26
Penetrated Low   24 23 14 22 18 23 16 19 12 17 15
Scenario Percentage   89% 82% 61% 85% 78% 79% 73% 90% 60% 77% 58%
Avg Max Decline   9.89% 7.07% 7.96% 7.06% 8.04% 6.54% 5.84% 6.22% 6.14% 6.00% 3.80%
Max Decline   16.62% 19.10% 36.47% 29.80% 26.70% 22.00% 24.08% 19.54% 13.19% 11.33% 10.93%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 19 14 22 15 12 15 18 14 7 7
Avg Max Increase   -1.96% -2.77% -1.13% -2.10% -1.62% -1.86% -1.87% -2.37% -2.44% -1.35% -1.10%
Max Increase   -13.32% -9.45% -3.88% -4.86% -5.93% -7.12% -4.64% -6.59% -4.87% -5.66% -4.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 10 4 11 10 8 8 10 9 7 2
2017 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes     Yes       Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes No     Yes       Not Yet Not Yet
High 425.25 455.00 391.75 360.75 360.75 375.75 372.75 371.25 377.75 387.25 383.00 373.00
Low 390.25 378.75 349.00 332.50 333.00 351.75 351.00 349.25 357.50 365.25 354.25 354.25
Close/Last 418.75 384.50 357.25 333.50 353.50 369.50 355.75 357.50 367.00 373.75 364.25 358.00

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