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ScenarioSM Study for November Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Dec 27, 2023 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
Tested Years | 18 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 35 | |
Closed Higher | 9 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 16 | 18 | 23 | 20 | |
Exceeded High | 7 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 12 | 17 | 22 | 12 | |
Scenario Percentage | 78% | 82% | 93% | 87% | 95% | 90% | 86% | 75% | 94% | 96% | 60% | |
Avg Max Increase | 6.86% | 8.44% | 11.65% | 14.81% | 11.43% | 10.87% | 10.30% | 10.73% | 10.45% | 14.84% | 14.15% | |
Max Increase | 11.88% | 16.96% | 25.78% | 41.56% | 32.87% | 22.91% | 34.75% | 16.93% | 20.97% | 95.55% | 50.87% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.43% | -0.95% | -1.51% | -2.35% | -2.11% | -3.00% | -2.13% | -1.78% | -2.58% | -2.92% | -0.56% | |
Max Decline | -2.62% | -7.50% | -6.67% | -10.06% | -14.05% | -9.22% | -6.86% | -5.55% | -14.81% | -13.93% | -3.50% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 | |
2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.