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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for October Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Dec 27, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years   18 29 29 29 32 32 32 34 34 34 34
Closed Higher   6 14 17 16 18 19 20 23 16 18 23
Exceeded High   6 10 14 15 14 18 18 20 12 17 18
Scenario Percentage   100% 71% 82% 94% 78% 95% 90% 87% 75% 94% 78%
Avg Max Increase   9.07% 7.28% 8.74% 11.03% 14.72% 11.77% 11.19% 10.38% 10.98% 10.69% 10.77%
Max Increase   19.36% 12.42% 17.15% 26.13% 42.60% 33.62% 23.63% 36.25% 17.06% 21.33% 55.97%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 14 12 18 13 16 17 15 18 15 15
Avg Max Decline   -0.45% -0.57% -1.62% -2.14% -2.37% -2.20% -3.11% -2.18% -1.91% -2.77% -1.17%
Max Decline   -2.32% -2.76% -8.31% -6.90% -10.00% -14.45% -9.23% -7.18% -6.28% -15.02% -3.59%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 6 9 6 7 8 6 7 6 7 2
2023 Contract Condition     Yes Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes Yes
Action     Yes No   No     No   Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years   18 29 29 29 32 32 32 34 34 34 34
Closed Lower   12 14 12 13 14 12 12 11 18 16 11
Penetrated Low   9 12 8 7 6 6 5 6 12 11 6
Scenario Percentage   75% 86% 67% 54% 43% 50% 42% 55% 67% 69% 55%
Avg Max Decline   12.50% 13.53% 18.07% 15.74% 15.74% 15.37% 10.35% 11.59% 10.07% 11.48% 9.65%
Max Decline   43.76% 35.75% 36.49% 26.03% 43.02% 47.90% 26.63% 24.31% 22.08% 34.70% 20.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 17 17 16 14 19 7 19 17 13 14
Avg Max Increase   -0.62% -1.45% -0.13% -3.16% -3.01% -4.03% -4.95% -3.68% -1.39% -1.75% -0.90%
Max Increase   -6.92% -4.72% -7.13% -6.82% -6.61% -9.13% -17.72% -8.14% -3.38% -6.60% -3.25%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 7 2 8 6 10 3 10 5 8 3
2023 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes   Yes Yes   Yes    
Action   No     No   Yes No   No    
High 90.14 84.96 85.75 88.42 85.67 86.18 83.77 84.19 84.79 78.86 78.06 85.58
Low 85.11 74.95 77.63 79.86 75.53 76.65 76.98 69.82 76.30 70.76 71.40 74.40
Close/Last 86.07 75.67 83.26 84.42 82.57 82.81 80.89 78.71 78.98 72.20 75.30 85.43

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