MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 09, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |
| Tested Years | 26 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 35 | |
| Closed Higher | 12 | 20 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 22 | 20 | |
| Exceeded High | 12 | 18 | 17 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 17 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 100% | 90% | 85% | 73% | 87% | 64% | 82% | 94% | 94% | 86% | 85% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 8.89% | 9.23% | 8.21% | 11.29% | 8.63% | 8.26% | 10.85% | 12.90% | 15.37% | 14.10% | 9.12% | |
| Max Increase | 17.73% | 25.53% | 16.40% | 29.40% | 20.85% | 14.55% | 23.40% | 30.13% | 55.71% | 41.86% | 20.26% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 18 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 17 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.39% | -1.98% | -1.98% | -1.64% | -1.56% | -1.79% | -2.26% | -3.01% | -2.83% | -2.61% | -1.63% | |
| Max Decline | -5.67% | -12.64% | -12.14% | -6.48% | -7.38% | -3.68% | -9.05% | -13.99% | -11.97% | -16.18% | -7.59% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 2 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
