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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 08, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   19 29 30 30 33 33 33 34 34 35 35
Closed Higher   13 14 20 20 18 16 15 16 16 20 22
Exceeded High   10 13 18 18 14 13 10 14 15 18 18
Scenario Percentage   77% 93% 90% 90% 78% 81% 67% 88% 94% 90% 82%
Avg Max Increase   12.09% 8.60% 9.17% 8.15% 9.61% 8.91% 8.50% 11.15% 13.97% 16.65% 10.49%
Max Increase   32.73% 16.30% 24.89% 17.56% 29.43% 21.10% 15.07% 23.89% 32.98% 58.37% 42.01%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 16 16 17 14 13 19 15 18 13 14
Avg Max Decline   -1.36% -0.87% -1.59% -1.94% -1.33% -1.53% -1.63% -2.27% -3.05% -2.90% -1.51%
Max Decline   -5.39% -5.44% -11.46% -12.32% -7.43% -8.00% -3.80% -9.12% -13.71% -12.55% -4.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline   11 7 6 7 8 4 6 6 8 7 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes
Action   No   Yes Yes Yes No       Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   19 29 30 30 33 33 33 34 34 35 35
Closed Lower   6 15 10 10 15 17 18 18 18 15 13
Penetrated Low   3 7 7 8 11 14 15 15 10 10 6
Scenario Percentage   50% 47% 70% 80% 73% 82% 83% 83% 56% 67% 46%
Avg Max Decline   11.82% 8.28% 10.83% 11.11% 12.06% 12.94% 15.53% 16.57% 14.11% 17.17% 15.59%
Max Decline   19.99% 17.98% 29.83% 27.01% 45.15% 48.62% 40.58% 39.59% 27.46% 57.23% 51.42%
Avg Days To Max Decline   20 19 15 18 19 15 19 16 16 13 20
Avg Max Increase   -1.22% -0.69% -0.75% -2.09% -3.57% -1.92% -2.28% -2.96% -4.65% -2.79% -3.41%
Max Increase   -3.24% -1.98% -5.47% -11.39% -16.92% -9.15% -6.78% -15.55% -12.81% -7.28% -8.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 4 5 13 14 10 4 9 10 8 7
2024 Contract Condition     Yes         Yes Yes Yes    
Action     No         Yes Yes No    
High 80.48 80.73 75.77 75.39 82.24 84.29 89.26 88.31 85.41 81.01 83.65 83.13
Low 70.33 74.11 69.44 69.86 72.61 79.73 83.51 79.42 76.66 73.22 74.84 76.41
Close/Last 76.16 76.33 70.37 73.73 82.18 83.56 85.98 82.97 80.00 76.79 80.27 81.91

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