MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for April Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 10, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan |
| Tested Years | 19 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 35 | |
| Closed Higher | 12 | 20 | 14 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 19 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 19 | |
| Exceeded High | 11 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 20 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 17 | 14 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 92% | 75% | 93% | 90% | 95% | 72% | 74% | 67% | 94% | 94% | 74% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 10.14% | 10.50% | 8.97% | 9.58% | 8.23% | 10.77% | 9.13% | 8.84% | 11.08% | 14.05% | 10.68% | |
| Max Increase | 18.62% | 32.37% | 17.73% | 26.05% | 19.09% | 29.92% | 21.56% | 15.49% | 23.87% | 36.77% | 23.00% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 18 | 19 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -0.40% | -0.92% | -1.52% | -1.94% | -2.49% | -1.77% | -1.60% | -1.68% | -2.45% | -3.80% | -1.85% | |
| Max Decline | -6.95% | -5.27% | -5.94% | -12.99% | -12.66% | -8.52% | -8.77% | -4.02% | -9.20% | -17.83% | -6.96% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 4 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Not Yet | ||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
