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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jun 05, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   18 28 29 29 32 32 33 33 34 35 35
Closed Higher   9 17 19 19 15 19 21 18 20 18 17
Exceeded High   8 16 18 15 14 17 20 13 15 12 13
Scenario Percentage   89% 94% 95% 79% 93% 89% 95% 72% 75% 67% 76%
Avg Max Increase   11.66% 10.67% 9.90% 10.86% 8.94% 9.65% 9.51% 11.89% 9.39% 9.99% 8.49%
Max Increase   29.61% 22.17% 20.51% 33.83% 17.60% 22.05% 24.00% 31.02% 22.44% 15.99% 12.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 20 17 12 15 15 19 16 13 19 20
Avg Max Decline   -1.16% -1.66% -2.37% -1.46% -1.84% -2.10% -2.85% -2.03% -2.44% -1.70% -1.48%
Max Decline   -8.94% -12.94% -8.86% -5.89% -6.13% -13.67% -13.19% -11.24% -10.89% -4.71% -4.04%
Avg Days to Max Decline   4 10 10 7 8 8 8 7 5 7 3
2024 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes    
Action   No     No   Yes Yes Yes No    
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   18 28 29 29 32 32 33 33 34 35 35
Closed Lower   9 11 10 9 17 13 11 15 14 17 18
Penetrated Low   5 5 6 4 9 9 10 10 11 16 15
Scenario Percentage   56% 45% 60% 44% 53% 69% 91% 67% 79% 94% 83%
Avg Max Decline   12.78% 14.24% 8.35% 10.65% 9.12% 10.18% 11.22% 13.62% 16.02% 16.98% 13.31%
Max Decline   36.91% 40.28% 20.62% 21.89% 19.70% 31.89% 27.96% 47.35% 51.70% 47.31% 34.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline   13 15 7 20 17 17 20 20 14 15 15
Avg Max Increase   -2.83% -2.05% -4.03% -3.18% -1.02% -1.99% -2.92% -3.06% -2.13% -2.41% -2.34%
Max Increase   -5.67% -5.38% -13.15% -6.31% -2.46% -9.35% -14.85% -13.51% -10.14% -4.75% -8.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 10 5 12 3 10 17 14 5 3 3
2024 Contract Condition     Yes Yes   Yes         Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes   No         Yes Yes
High 83.05 84.00 81.53 81.81 82.32 76.79 76.33 83.61 85.72 91.92 91.04 87.12
Low 75.04 75.65 75.88 69.95 74.90 69.86 70.49 73.30 80.71 85.00 81.26 76.71
Close/Last 80.72 80.77 79.02 77.15 77.28 71.07 74.42 83.48 85.07 88.82 84.45 80.86

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Newsflash

Think again! Fed cuts and MRCI seasonal trends could unlock profits in Treasuries. Challenge yourself to explore the TLT ETF and futures. https://www.barchart.com/story/news/33123477/lower-interest-rates-in-the-3rd-quarter-opportunities-for-traders-and-consumers

Historical research from Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI) highlights a seasonal tendency for Treasury prices to rise and yields to fall in July. This pattern holds across the 5-year, 15-year, and 30-year seasonal patterns, implying that the fundamentals during this period have been relatively consistent, driven by market dynamics and investor behavior. July often sees reduced trading volumes due to summer slowdowns, which can amplify price movements in bonds. Investors may rebalance their portfolios in the third quarter, as the end of September marks the Federal government's year-end, which is expected to increase demand for Treasuries.

This seasonal trend offers traders a potential edge. For instance, MRCI data shows the 10-year Treasury note often rallies in July, with prices rising as yields dip. This could be a short-term opportunity for those positioned in Treasury futures or ETFs. However, seasonality is not a guarantee; traders must combine it with other analyses, such as technical indicators or macroeconomic trends, to make informed decisions.