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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   25 17 28 23 19 20 27 20 25 16 21
Exceeded High   19 15 19 17 15 17 25 18 19 12 13
Scenario Percentage   76% 88% 68% 74% 79% 85% 93% 90% 76% 75% 62%
Avg Max Increase   6.88% 9.83% 10.44% 8.91% 12.46% 11.04% 8.72% 12.01% 10.62% 11.58% 6.83%
Max Increase   25.86% 22.72% 21.10% 22.63% 34.71% 33.75% 29.90% 38.87% 43.99% 31.88% 19.55%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 18 18 14 19 14 16 16 12 11 9
Avg Max Decline   -1.41% -2.15% -1.47% -2.48% -2.02% -2.33% -2.10% -1.99% -1.69% -2.15% -0.85%
Max Decline   -6.87% -5.45% -4.94% -8.73% -5.88% -6.99% -6.87% -4.49% -5.23% -6.10% -2.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 5 8 9 10 10 7 8 3 7 2
2023 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes             Yes
Action   No   Yes No             Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   20 28 17 22 26 24 18 25 20 28 24
Penetrated Low   14 21 15 16 20 14 14 20 18 24 16
Scenario Percentage   70% 75% 88% 73% 77% 58% 78% 80% 90% 86% 67%
Avg Max Decline   8.52% 7.78% 6.35% 6.22% 6.14% 9.16% 7.50% 6.86% 7.63% 7.39% 5.70%
Max Decline   41.85% 32.33% 17.27% 14.31% 23.48% 20.19% 15.92% 19.94% 14.82% 24.35% 15.70%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 15 23 18 15 14 17 16 19 13 8
Avg Max Increase   -1.50% -1.51% -3.88% -3.46% -2.77% -2.46% -2.61% -3.28% -2.51% -2.85% -1.49%
Max Increase   -5.98% -7.02% -9.65% -15.13% -8.36% -6.52% -4.92% -8.17% -6.68% -7.08% -7.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 5 11 12 11 6 5 13 7 8 2
2023 Contract Condition     Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action     No     No Yes Yes Yes Yes Not Yet  
High 64.02 65.50 64.10 65.15 70.00 67.05 64.57 63.34 61.83 57.51 55.12 65.65
Low 53.55 58.78 57.83 58.70 64.68 58.00 60.06 58.74 51.50 50.57 44.53 46.16
Close/Last 63.44 63.70 58.59 64.94 67.49 63.56 62.31 59.75 55.62 51.67 46.20 65.01

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