MRCI's Futures Highlight - Crude Oil(NYM)

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Crude Oil(NYM)

MRCI hopes this profile of the NYM Crude Oil futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by barchart

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the NYM Crude Oil futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Crude Oil(NYM) from 1/1983 - 3/2024
Calendar Year	Monday Avg Rng	Tuesday Avg Rng	Wednesday Avg Rng	Thursday Avg Rng	Friday Avg Rng	Yearly Avg Rng
1983	0.22($223)	0.24($243)	0.25($254)	0.23($230)	0.23($234)	0.24($237)
1984	0.30($295)	0.24($238)	0.29($292)	0.30($301)	0.23($232)	0.27($271)
1985	0.40($404)	0.39($389)	0.40($404)	0.37($372)	0.33($327)	0.38($379)
1986	0.83($833)	0.73($734)	0.64($643)	0.71($708)	0.64($637)	0.71($711)
1987	0.38($378)	0.36($363)	0.37($368)	0.30($296)	0.31($312)	0.34($344)
1988	0.48($483)	0.35($355)	0.38($380)	0.38($376)	0.35($353)	0.39($388)
1989	0.47($473)	0.41($411)	0.45($447)	0.41($414)	0.40($399)	0.43($428)
1990	1.26($1264)	0.96($958)	1.19($1188)	1.02($1020)	0.96($958)	1.07($1075)
1991	0.64($642)	0.53($526)	0.72($718)	0.70($700)	0.53($527)	0.62($622)
1992	0.31($309)	0.34($341)	0.33($326)	0.32($324)	0.31($310)	0.32($322)
1993	0.41($407)	0.35($346)	0.34($340)	0.38($383)	0.34($335)	0.36($362)
1994	0.50($498)	0.38($382)	0.43($427)	0.40($402)	0.42($425)	0.43($425)
1995	0.32($321)	0.26($264)	0.33($330)	0.30($300)	0.31($313)	0.31($305)
1996	0.71($712)	0.61($608)	0.68($676)	0.63($627)	0.57($574)	0.64($639)
1997	0.53($527)	0.46($456)	0.52($520)	0.51($509)	0.51($512)	0.50($504)
1998	0.61($611)	0.47($472)	0.49($493)	0.52($523)	0.44($438)	0.51($507)
1999	0.53($530)	0.53($530)	0.64($640)	0.58($576)	0.60($596)	0.57($575)
2000	1.02($1016)	0.86($859)	1.07($1068)	1.01($1006)	0.98($978)	0.98($985)
2001	0.85($852)	0.67($674)	0.99($987)	0.86($863)	0.87($869)	0.85($849)
2002	0.93($934)	0.76($758)	0.88($878)	0.88($884)	0.80($797)	0.85($849)
2003	1.03($1033)	0.99($989)	1.10($1104)	1.07($1066)	1.04($1035)	1.05($1046)
2004	1.31($1312)	1.18($1178)	1.62($1620)	1.36($1362)	1.20($1199)	1.34($1337)
2005	1.77($1772)	1.53($1526)	1.86($1862)	1.81($1809)	1.61($1612)	1.72($1715)
2006	1.85($1848)	1.74($1742)	1.70($1697)	1.61($1608)	1.57($1570)	1.69($1689)
2007	2.01($2011)	2.19($2191)	2.21($2208)	2.19($2192)	1.80($1804)	2.08($2081)
2008	4.56($4557)	4.47($4474)	4.33($4331)	4.51($4511)	4.06($4059)	4.38($4385)
2009	2.82($2816)	2.67($2672)	2.79($2788)	2.61($2609)	2.73($2730)	2.72($2722)
2010	1.99($1986)	2.20($2204)	2.18($2176)	2.23($2226)	2.35($2349)	2.19($2191)
2011	3.04($3038)	3.08($3085)	2.99($2989)	3.34($3336)	2.95($2955)	3.08($3081)
2012	2.24($2238)	2.22($2216)	2.26($2264)	2.29($2291)	2.28($2281)	2.26($2258)
2013	1.75($1750)	1.79($1791)	1.97($1970)	1.90($1900)	1.76($1755)	1.83($1834)
2014	1.78($1777)	1.86($1860)	1.75($1753)	1.85($1850)	1.76($1755)	1.80($1799)
2015	1.99($1994)	2.06($2062)	2.25($2255)	2.04($2037)	1.98($1982)	2.07($2068)
2016	1.76($1763)	1.71($1712)	1.90($1901)	1.63($1629)	1.60($1600)	1.72($1721)
2017	1.17($1174)	1.27($1272)	1.33($1329)	1.18($1184)	1.17($1167)	1.23($1227)
2018	1.78($1782)	1.85($1849)	1.96($1962)	1.66($1664)	1.74($1739)	1.80($1799)
2019	1.75($1753)	1.64($1643)	1.81($1809)	1.70($1700)	1.67($1671)	1.71($1715)
2020	2.45($2448)	2.19($2193)	2.14($2143)	2.17($2173)	1.96($1960)	2.18($2182)
2021	2.44($2441)	2.16($2162)	2.25($2251)	2.22($2220)	2.09($2086)	2.23($2229)
2022	5.00($4999)	4.86($4855)	4.67($4666)	4.47($4472)	4.05($4051)	4.60($4601)
2023	2.52($2515)	2.55($2550)	2.64($2644)	2.58($2575)	2.44($2438)	2.55($2546)
2024	2.26($2257)	1.89($1894)	2.17($2174)	2.22($2217)	2.04($2036)	2.11($2110)

What other characteristics do NYM Crude Oil futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Crude Oil(NYM) from 1/1983 - 3/2024
Summary Item	Monday Summary	Tuesday Summary	Wednesday Summary	Thursday Summary	Friday Summary	Yearly Summary
Range	1.44($1438)	1.38($1381)	1.46($1458)	1.41($1410)	1.34($1335)	1.40($1404)
Closed Up	922(48%)	1039(49%)	1092(52%)	1110(53%)	1086(53%)	5249(51%)
Closed Dn	992(51%)	1050(50%)	997(47%)	948(46%)	932(46%)	4919(48%)
Closed Uchg	21(1%)	27(1%)	27(1%)	20(1%)	21(1%)	116(1%)
Gapped up	224(12%)	189(9%)	197(9%)	197(9%)	183(9%)	990(10%)
Un-filled Gaps Up	95(42%)	67(35%)	77(39%)	73(37%)	58(32%)	370(37%)
Gapped Down	228(12%)	199(9%)	208(10%)	168(8%)	126(6%)	929(9%)
Un-filled Gaps Down	100(44%)	71(36%)	72(35%)	54(32%)	32(25%)	329(35%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Crude Oil(NYM)
UNCH	>0%- <1%	+1%- <2%	+2%- <3%	+3%- <4%	+4%- <5%	+5%- <6%	+6%- <7%	+7%- <8%	+8%- <9%	+9%- <10%	+10%- <20%	>+20%
116	2358	1439	756	338	169	76	45	17	20	6	20	5
	<0%- >-1%	-1%- >-2%	-2%- >-3%	-3%- >-4%	-4%- >-5%	-5%- >-6%	-6%- >-7%	-7%- >-8%	-8%- >-9%	-9%- >-10%	-10%- >-20%	<-20%
	2230	1324	643	344	188	80	35	28	15	8	19	5

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the NYM Crude Oil futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

West Texas Crude - Mar 10, 2023
	Period Low(Jan-Dec)		Period High(Jan-Dec)		Last Day		Average
Year	Date	Price	Date	Price	Date	Price	Price
2022	12/09/2022	71.05	03/08/2022	123.64	12/30/2022	80.26	94.79
2021	01/04/2021	47.47	10/26/2021	85.64	12/31/2021	75.33	68.18
2020	04/20/2020	-36.98	01/06/2020	63.27	12/31/2020	48.35	39.18
2019	01/02/2019	46.31	04/23/2019	66.23	12/31/2019	61.14	56.99
2018	12/27/2018	44.48	06/27/2018	77.41	12/31/2018	45.15	65.02
2017	06/21/2017	42.48	12/29/2017	60.46	12/29/2017	60.46	50.82
2016	02/11/2016	26.19	12/28/2016	54.01	12/30/2016	53.75	43.33
2015	12/21/2015	34.55	06/10/2015	61.36	12/31/2015	37.13	48.66
2014	12/31/2014	53.45	06/20/2014	107.95	12/31/2014	53.45	93.17
2013	04/17/2013	86.68	09/06/2013	110.62	12/31/2013	98.17	98.02
2012	06/28/2012	77.69	02/24/2012	109.77	12/31/2012	91.82	94.14
2011	10/04/2011	75.67	04/29/2011	113.93	12/30/2011	98.83	95.11
2010	05/24/2010	66.88	12/23/2010 12/27/2010	92.21	12/31/2010	89.84	79.53
2009	02/12/2009	33.98	10/21/2009	81.37	12/31/2009	79.36	61.99
2008	12/22/2008	30.81	07/11/2008	145.66	12/31/2008	44.60	99.66
2007	01/18/2007 01/19/2007	50.49	11/20/2007	98.83	12/31/2007	96.01	72.40
2006	11/16/2006	56.27	07/14/2006	77.03	12/29/2006	61.06	66.11
2005	01/03/2005	42.13	08/30/2005	69.82	12/30/2005	61.04	56.64
2004	02/06/2004	32.48	10/25/2004	55.23	12/30/2004	43.46	41.49
2003	04/29/2003	25.23	03/12/2003	37.83	12/31/2003	32.54	31.10
2002	01/17/2002	17.98	12/27/2002	32.73	12/31/2002	31.23	26.15
2001	11/15/2001	17.48	05/10/2001	32.29	12/31/2001	19.78	25.90
2000	04/11/2000	23.84	09/20/2000 09/21/2000	37.00	12/29/2000	25.76	30.15
1999	02/16/1999 02/17/1999	11.36	12/29/1999	26.94	12/31/1999	26.92	19.33
1998	12/21/1998	10.80	01/29/1998 01/30/1998	17.80	12/31/1998	11.66	14.44
1997	12/31/1997	17.53	01/08/1997	26.61	12/31/1997	17.63	20.61
1996	01/26/1996	17.26	12/20/1996	26.56	12/31/1996	25.91	21.95
1995	07/21/1995	16.67	05/01/1995	20.71	12/29/1995	19.47	18.38
1994	02/17/1994	13.86	08/01/1994	20.87	12/30/1994	17.78	17.16
1993	12/20/1993	13.79	03/09/1993	21.43	12/31/1993	14.13	18.43
1992	01/09/1992	17.85	06/25/1992	22.89	12/31/1992	19.48	20.57
1991	02/22/1991	17.85	01/16/1991	32.00	12/31/1991	19.10	21.52
1990	06/20/1990	15.30	10/09/1990 10/11/1990	40.40	12/31/1990	28.45	24.50
1989	01/31/1989	17.05	04/20/1989	24.65	12/29/1989	21.80	19.61
1988	10/05/1988	12.60	04/26/1988	18.60	12/30/1988	17.25	15.95

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the July Crude Oil(NYM) futures contracts.

Scenario^SM Study for September Crude Oil(NYM) as of Mar 10, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		34	36	37	37	39	39	39	40	40	40	40
Closed Higher		16	16	17	19	21	23	27	26	19	21	25
Exceeded High		14	9	15	19	20	21	25	22	16	19	20
Scenario Percentage		88%	56%	88%	100%	95%	91%	93%	85%	84%	90%	80%
Avg Max Increase		7.28%	9.28%	10.65%	10.69%	12.27%	11.22%	10.15%	9.54%	10.95%	9.07%	8.42%
Max Increase		21.09%	14.18%	17.87%	27.14%	36.48%	29.21%	23.85%	29.55%	18.59%	16.41%	41.37%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	25	14	18	16	17	16	15	18	10	11
Avg Max Decline		-1.09%	-2.42%	-1.73%	-2.10%	-2.97%	-1.97%	-3.10%	-2.73%	-2.69%	-2.38%	-1.04%
Max Decline		-5.19%	-9.17%	-7.94%	-8.33%	-10.21%	-14.19%	-11.27%	-8.44%	-9.48%	-12.43%	-3.77%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	13	5	8	8	9	9	10	8	11	2
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.

Tested Month

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Tested Years

Closed Lower

Penetrated Low

Scenario Percentage

83%

85%

90%

67%

56%

50%

58%

50%

71%

68%

73%

Avg Max Decline

11.11%

12.36%

13.29%

15.71%

18.10%

13.93%

12.51%

8.01%

11.07%

12.78%

8.78%

Max Decline

44.61%

37.24%

30.56%

37.89%

50.69%

51.63%

29.34%

15.60%

23.21%

32.79%

20.89%

Avg Days To Max Decline

Avg Max Increase

-1.41%

-2.48%

-2.26%

-2.48%

-3.40%

-3.62%

-5.10%

-3.78%

-1.38%

-2.46%

-1.50%

Max Increase

-8.96%

-6.84%

-11.90%

-9.95%

-10.20%

-10.12%

-16.16%

-9.34%

-3.66%

-7.70%

-4.10%

Avg Days to Max Increase

2023 Contract Condition

Yes

Action

Yes

Not Yet

High

85.94

81.33

81.93

83.59

81.12

81.75

79.44

79.86

Low

78.88

69.56

72.35

73.14

71.10

72.89

72.39

74.16

Close/Last

81.47

71.08

77.95

79.24

78.85

78.26

76.05

75.92

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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