MRCI's Futures Highlight

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Gold(CMX)

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Gold(CMX)

MRCI hopes this profile of the CMX Gold futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by barchart

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the CMX Gold futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Gold(CMX) from 1/1976 - 3/2024
Calendar Year	Monday Avg Rng	Tuesday Avg Rng	Wednesday Avg Rng	Thursday Avg Rng	Friday Avg Rng	Yearly Avg Rng
1976	1.9($190)	2.0($202)	1.9($192)	1.7($167)	1.7($167)	1.8($184)
1977	2.1($208)	1.8($178)	1.9($189)	1.7($170)	1.6($162)	1.8($181)
1978	3.5($351)	3.7($366)	3.6($364)	3.5($351)	3.2($321)	3.5($350)
1979	7.0($702)	7.9($789)	7.9($791)	8.0($795)	6.7($672)	7.5($750)
1980	22.1($2208)	20.1($2014)	19.7($1970)	21.4($2142)	20.6($2056)	20.8($2076)
1981	14.1($1408)	10.5($1051)	11.1($1109)	11.1($1106)	10.1($1014)	11.4($1136)
1982	11.3($1134)	10.2($1023)	10.7($1069)	10.2($1015)	10.9($1095)	10.7($1066)
1983	9.5($955)	7.3($731)	7.4($745)	7.6($759)	7.3($728)	7.8($780)
1984	5.3($532)	4.8($485)	5.0($497)	5.3($527)	5.8($583)	5.2($524)
1985	5.3($534)	4.9($487)	4.4($435)	4.3($433)	4.1($408)	4.6($459)
1986	6.4($642)	5.8($583)	5.5($550)	5.7($569)	6.6($660)	6.0($600)
1987	7.0($695)	7.1($707)	5.2($521)	6.3($632)	6.7($668)	6.4($644)
1988	4.9($488)	4.5($446)	5.0($498)	4.6($461)	5.8($583)	4.9($495)
1989	4.1($406)	4.2($416)	4.2($416)	4.1($407)	5.4($540)	4.4($437)
1990	6.6($661)	5.8($577)	5.5($551)	4.5($448)	5.5($548)	5.6($556)
1991	3.5($353)	3.2($322)	3.4($336)	3.9($387)	3.4($340)	3.5($347)
1992	2.7($270)	2.1($211)	2.4($242)	2.4($237)	2.5($254)	2.4($242)
1993	4.0($402)	3.9($386)	4.3($429)	4.6($456)	4.0($402)	4.2($415)
1994	3.4($336)	3.1($310)	3.2($321)	3.4($343)	3.4($340)	3.3($330)
1995	1.9($195)	2.1($211)	2.4($236)	2.1($213)	2.6($257)	2.2($223)
1996	2.1($207)	2.3($234)	2.3($231)	2.2($225)	2.5($249)	2.3($230)
1997	3.2($322)	3.4($340)	3.3($334)	4.0($396)	3.9($390)	3.6($356)
1998	3.2($323)	3.1($305)	3.1($307)	3.6($356)	3.5($350)	3.3($328)
1999	3.3($326)	4.2($416)	3.2($318)	2.8($282)	3.0($302)	3.3($329)
2000	2.8($280)	3.3($327)	3.3($331)	3.3($334)	3.7($371)	3.3($330)
2001	2.9($293)	2.7($266)	2.8($284)	3.0($296)	3.5($350)	3.0($298)
2002	3.6($359)	4.2($422)	4.2($421)	4.1($413)	4.3($433)	4.1($410)
2003	5.8($576)	5.8($576)	6.2($622)	6.4($637)	6.6($658)	6.1($614)
2004	5.0($497)	6.2($622)	6.5($651)	6.0($601)	7.0($705)	6.2($616)
2005	5.3($527)	5.2($517)	5.2($523)	6.1($609)	5.4($543)	5.4($544)
2006	13.1($1310)	13.2($1323)	13.1($1305)	13.9($1387)	13.7($1371)	13.4($1340)
2007	10.1($1010)	11.6($1165)	11.7($1166)	12.6($1263)	13.2($1315)	11.9($1186)
2008	25.2($2518)	26.9($2693)	26.6($2657)	27.9($2792)	27.1($2709)	26.7($2675)
2009	20.8($2085)	20.0($1997)	20.1($2011)	20.2($2018)	21.1($2113)	20.4($2043)
2010	17.7($1768)	21.7($2169)	18.9($1892)	20.2($2025)	20.1($2012)	19.8($1977)
2011	31.3($3132)	32.9($3291)	30.0($2997)	32.5($3250)	31.0($3098)	31.5($3154)
2012	19.1($1909)	24.9($2490)	25.6($2559)	25.5($2555)	25.3($2533)	24.2($2415)
2013	25.2($2518)	24.6($2460)	26.5($2651)	31.1($3106)	27.7($2771)	27.0($2701)
2014	18.9($1892)	17.6($1756)	15.9($1593)	18.6($1857)	18.0($1795)	17.8($1776)
2015	16.6($1659)	15.6($1563)	16.7($1668)	17.2($1716)	18.2($1825)	16.9($1685)
2016	16.4($1635)	18.0($1801)	19.7($1969)	21.3($2128)	22.1($2207)	19.5($1954)
2017	13.3($1326)	12.9($1294)	14.0($1399)	14.6($1461)	13.4($1336)	13.6($1364)
2018	11.6($1161)	13.6($1361)	14.0($1397)	13.6($1358)	13.0($1298)	13.2($1317)
2019	15.0($1504)	15.4($1537)	15.9($1593)	18.8($1875)	17.0($1696)	16.4($1641)
2020	38.0($3795)	37.3($3733)	34.1($3412)	32.7($3268)	32.5($3246)	34.9($3489)
2021	23.8($2379)	23.4($2342)	25.1($2514)	27.0($2705)	28.0($2800)	25.5($2549)
2022	28.3($2834)	28.1($2810)	26.5($2651)	30.3($3030)	26.2($2618)	27.9($2787)
2023	23.5($2351)	25.1($2514)	24.6($2457)	26.2($2624)	27.8($2777)	25.5($2549)
2024	22.3($2226)	24.9($2488)	23.9($2395)	28.3($2825)	29.8($2978)	25.9($2593)

What other characteristics do CMX Gold futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Gold(CMX) from 1/1976 - 3/2024
Summary Item	Monday Summary	Tuesday Summary	Wednesday Summary	Thursday Summary	Friday Summary	Yearly Summary
Range	11.1($1110)	11.3($1129)	11.2($1121)	11.8($1181)	11.7($1175)	11.4($1143)
Closed Up	1137(50%)	1215(49%)	1220(49%)	1194(49%)	1244(52%)	6010(50%)
Closed Dn	1114(49%)	1236(50%)	1237(50%)	1214(50%)	1131(47%)	5932(49%)
Closed Uchg	36(2%)	39(2%)	39(2%)	39(2%)	30(1%)	183(2%)
Gapped up	317(14%)	258(10%)	293(12%)	223(9%)	251(10%)	1342(11%)
Un-filled Gaps Up	124(39%)	87(34%)	115(39%)	79(35%)	85(34%)	490(37%)
Gapped Down	290(13%)	268(11%)	261(10%)	286(12%)	207(9%)	1312(11%)
Un-filled Gaps Down	157(54%)	90(34%)	88(34%)	107(37%)	78(38%)	520(40%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Gold(CMX)
UNCH	>0%- <1%	+1%- <2%	+2%- <3%	+3%- <4%	+4%- <5%	+5%- <6%	+6%- <7%	+7%- <8%	+8%- <9%	+9%- <10%	+10%- <20%	>+20%
183	4326	1237	291	87	38	16	6	4	1	3	1	0
	<0%- >-1%	-1%- >-2%	-2%- >-3%	-3%- >-4%	-4%- >-5%	-5%- >-6%	-6%- >-7%	-7%- >-8%	-8%- >-9%	-9%- >-10%	-10%- >-20%	<-20%
	4367	1066	307	115	48	16	7	3	1	2	0	0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the CMX Gold futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Gold: 24-HR Composite - Jan 31, 2024
	Period Low(Jan-Dec)		Period High(Jan-Dec)		Last Day		Average
Year	Date	Price	Date	Price	Date	Price	Price
2023	02/28/2023	1807.1	12/04/2023	2122.7	12/29/2023	2062.9	1943.3
2022	09/28/2022	1616.1	03/08/2022	2065.9	12/30/2022	1824.1	1801.5
2021	03/08/2021	1677.6	01/06/2021	1957.9	12/31/2021	1828.4	1798.4
2020	03/16/2020	1453.3	08/07/2020	2070.5	12/31/2020	1896.5	1772.3
2019	04/23/2019	1266.6	09/04/2019	1556.1	12/31/2019	1517.0	1394.1
2018	08/16/2018	1160.8	01/25/2018	1365.7	12/31/2018	1282.4	1268.5
2017	01/03/2017	1146.2	09/08/2017	1357.1	12/29/2017	1302.2	1258.9
2016	01/04/2016	1061.6	07/06/2016	1374.9	12/30/2016	1151.5	1249.3
2015	12/03/2015	1046.3	01/22/2015	1306.1	12/31/2015	1061.2	1158.8
2014	11/07/2014	1132.0	03/17/2014	1391.8	12/31/2014	1184.0	1265.5
2013	06/28/2013	1180.6	01/22/2013	1696.0	12/31/2013	1205.2	1410.9
2012	05/16/2012	1527.5	10/05/2012	1795.8	12/31/2012	1675.2	1668.6
2011	01/28/2011	1308.1	09/06/2011	1920.2	12/30/2011	1563.5	1572.4
2010	02/05/2010	1044.8	12/07/2010	1430.6	12/31/2010	1420.7	1228.4
2009	01/15/2009	802.6	12/03/2009	1226.4	12/31/2009	1096.5	974.4
2008	10/24/2008	682.8	03/17/2008	1032.8	12/31/2008	881.7	872.5
2007	01/05/2007	602.3	11/07/2007	845.9	12/31/2007	833.6	697.9
2006	01/02/2006	512.0	05/12/2006	730.4	12/29/2006	636.6	604.8
2005	02/09/2005	410.4	12/12/2005	541.0	12/30/2005	517.0	445.7
2004	05/10/2004	371.7	12/02/2004	456.9	12/31/2004	438.4	409.9
2003	04/07/2003	319.2	12/31/2003	417.8	12/31/2003	415.7	364.4
2002	01/03/2002	277.1	12/19/2002	354.3	12/31/2002	348.1	310.8
2001	02/16/2001	254.4	05/21/2001	296.0	12/31/2001	279.0	271.0
2000	10/27/2000	262.6	02/07/2000	319.0	12/29/2000	271.9	278.6
1999	08/26/1999	252.0	10/05/1999	337.5	12/31/1999	287.5	278.5

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the June Gold(CMX) futures contracts.

Scenario^SM Study for June Gold(CMX) as of Jan 30, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	25	25	18	22	23	23	19	18	22	20
Exceeded High		17	19	16	14	20	20	16	13	12	15	14
Scenario Percentage		74%	76%	64%	78%	91%	87%	70%	68%	67%	68%	70%
Avg Max Increase		12.38%	10.25%	8.05%	7.09%	11.03%	10.94%	6.42%	5.16%	8.56%	6.73%	3.93%
Max Increase		39.45%	36.10%	18.38%	17.87%	103.28%	59.53%	15.31%	11.23%	24.77%	14.45%	15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	16	15	13	16	15	17	18	12	15	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.80%	-0.49%	-1.53%	-1.69%	-1.56%	-1.21%	-2.28%	-1.46%	-1.13%	-1.45%	-1.10%
Max Decline		-4.27%	-3.52%	-6.24%	-6.23%	-8.99%	-9.14%	-6.94%	-4.71%	-2.05%	-7.09%	-4.04%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	4	8	3	6	7	7	8	4	8	3
2024 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes	Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.

Tested Month

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Tested Years

Closed Lower

Penetrated Low

Scenario Percentage

73%

75%

65%

85%

77%

73%

86%

88%

74%

83%

64%

Avg Max Decline

5.24%

6.55%

4.99%

5.44%

6.04%

7.38%

5.48%

6.80%

4.31%

4.53%

4.61%

Max Decline

19.65%

18.38%

8.45%

14.61%

25.07%

21.53%

20.33%

29.03%

8.68%

13.80%

13.62%

Avg Days To Max Decline

Avg Max Increase

-1.01%

-1.97%

-2.06%

-2.08%

-1.43%

-1.00%

-2.22%

-2.00%

-1.88%

-2.13%

-1.61%

Max Increase

-4.49%

-10.34%

-6.71%

-7.69%

-5.81%

-5.94%

-12.92%

-8.85%

-7.23%

-4.85%

-4.87%

Avg Days to Max Increase

2024 Contract Condition

Yes

Action

Yes

High

2093.1

2085.0

2059.8

2038.5

2078.9

2110.4

2191.2

2127.5

Low

1999.8

2011.6

1972.1

1920.0

1879.5

1994.8

2027.3

2044.0

Close/Last

2025.9

2068.6

2025.3

1923.2

2054.2

2096.5

2111.3

2070.5

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