MRCI's Futures Highlight - Soybeans(CBOT)

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Soybeans(CBOT)

MRCI hopes this profile of the CBOT Soybeans futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by barchart

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the CBOT Soybeans futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Soybeans(CBOT) from 1/1976 - 3/2024
Calendar Year	Monday Avg Rng	Tuesday Avg Rng	Wednesday Avg Rng	Thursday Avg Rng	Friday Avg Rng	Yearly Avg Rng
1976	14.65($733)	13.72($686)	13.94($697)	14.67($733)	13.32($666)	14.06($703)
1977	21.53($1077)	19.51($975)	19.85($993)	19.94($997)	18.95($947)	19.92($996)
1978	15.64($782)	14.78($739)	14.43($721)	14.01($700)	13.06($653)	14.36($718)
1979	15.16($758)	14.01($701)	13.06($653)	13.51($675)	12.25($613)	13.58($679)
1980	17.76($888)	15.27($763)	14.35($717)	15.40($770)	15.07($754)	15.54($777)
1981	16.39($820)	12.92($646)	11.43($572)	12.73($636)	12.68($634)	13.20($660)
1982	9.33($466)	7.79($389)	7.77($388)	8.41($420)	8.47($424)	8.34($417)
1983	16.68($834)	15.09($754)	16.04($802)	16.05($803)	15.71($785)	15.90($795)
1984	15.05($753)	15.90($795)	14.24($712)	14.84($742)	15.69($784)	15.14($757)
1985	8.40($420)	7.83($392)	6.96($348)	7.46($373)	7.87($393)	7.70($385)
1986	5.86($293)	5.70($285)	5.87($293)	6.48($324)	5.18($259)	5.82($291)
1987	10.37($519)	7.23($361)	7.77($389)	7.57($379)	7.09($355)	7.99($400)
1988	18.73($936)	17.90($895)	17.86($893)	18.80($940)	18.39($919)	18.33($916)
1989	14.32($716)	10.15($508)	11.71($585)	10.91($546)	11.26($563)	11.63($581)
1990	10.56($528)	8.03($402)	8.66($433)	8.32($416)	9.69($484)	9.04($452)
1991	11.09($554)	9.21($461)	9.20($460)	8.82($441)	9.27($463)	9.51($475)
1992	8.35($417)	6.59($329)	7.35($368)	6.52($326)	6.97($349)	7.14($357)
1993	9.34($467)	8.24($412)	8.58($429)	9.39($469)	8.20($410)	8.75($437)
1994	10.68($534)	9.05($453)	9.21($460)	8.37($418)	7.73($387)	8.98($449)
1995	11.17($559)	7.74($387)	7.10($355)	7.68($384)	7.86($393)	8.26($413)
1996	14.77($738)	12.30($615)	11.79($589)	12.67($634)	11.31($565)	12.55($627)
1997	17.16($858)	14.19($710)	14.15($707)	14.82($741)	14.96($748)	15.03($752)
1998	9.53($477)	9.76($488)	9.07($453)	8.49($425)	9.73($486)	9.31($466)
1999	9.52($476)	9.66($483)	9.03($451)	8.74($437)	8.35($417)	9.06($453)
2000	10.25($513)	8.19($409)	8.54($427)	9.12($456)	9.31($466)	9.06($453)
2001	8.19($409)	7.70($385)	8.01($401)	8.51($426)	8.51($425)	8.19($409)
2002	11.09($555)	9.28($464)	9.56($478)	9.29($464)	9.12($456)	9.65($483)
2003	12.55($628)	13.33($667)	11.71($586)	11.98($599)	12.60($630)	12.43($622)
2004	23.99($1199)	19.49($975)	23.26($1163)	23.08($1154)	19.51($975)	21.85($1092)
2005	16.43($822)	16.05($802)	13.62($681)	14.63($732)	15.17($759)	15.15($758)
2006	12.78($639)	10.22($511)	10.63($531)	10.98($549)	11.32($566)	11.15($558)
2007	18.23($912)	18.05($903)	17.89($895)	16.98($849)	19.56($978)	18.14($907)
2008	51.17($2559)	47.34($2367)	45.12($2256)	44.73($2237)	43.77($2189)	46.38($2319)
2009	35.67($1783)	31.55($1577)	26.61($1331)	31.55($1577)	28.98($1449)	30.81($1541)
2010	21.17($1059)	20.69($1034)	20.17($1008)	20.90($1045)	21.71($1086)	20.92($1046)
2011	25.42($1271)	28.44($1422)	26.31($1316)	30.49($1524)	27.48($1374)	27.67($1383)
2012	32.78($1639)	29.06($1453)	30.22($1511)	30.62($1531)	29.58($1479)	30.42($1521)
2013	27.96($1398)	23.88($1194)	23.00($1150)	25.23($1262)	25.09($1254)	24.99($1250)
2014	27.05($1352)	25.31($1265)	22.34($1117)	25.23($1262)	22.99($1150)	24.55($1228)
2015	16.89($845)	17.98($899)	15.44($772)	16.43($821)	15.44($772)	16.44($822)
2016	19.46($973)	20.68($1034)	18.69($934)	20.55($1027)	20.02($1001)	19.89($994)
2017	13.24($662)	14.82($741)	12.31($616)	15.66($783)	12.88($644)	13.79($689)
2018	17.02($851)	15.26($763)	14.91($746)	16.43($822)	16.25($813)	15.96($798)
2019	13.12($656)	13.05($652)	11.97($599)	12.82($641)	12.11($605)	12.61($630)
2020	15.72($786)	15.25($763)	15.03($752)	15.41($771)	13.86($693)	15.06($753)
2021	29.09($1454)	32.50($1625)	30.39($1520)	32.56($1628)	29.85($1493)	30.91($1546)
2022	38.94($1947)	36.90($1845)	33.56($1678)	37.49($1874)	34.41($1721)	36.19($1809)
2023	26.53($1327)	25.02($1251)	24.79($1240)	25.48($1274)	25.87($1294)	25.51($1276)
2024	18.27($914)	18.40($920)	18.12($906)	20.90($1045)	21.46($1073)	19.45($973)

What other characteristics do CBOT Soybeans futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Soybeans(CBOT) from 1/1976 - 3/2024
Summary Item	Monday Summary	Tuesday Summary	Wednesday Summary	Thursday Summary	Friday Summary	Yearly Summary
Range	17.38($869)	16.13($806)	15.53($776)	16.29($814)	15.76($788)	16.20($810)
Closed Up	1131(49%)	1273(51%)	1300(52%)	1186(48%)	1221(50%)	6111(50%)
Closed Dn	1129(49%)	1168(47%)	1158(46%)	1231(50%)	1168(48%)	5854(48%)
Closed Uchg	33(1%)	47(2%)	38(2%)	34(1%)	38(2%)	190(2%)
Gapped up	279(12%)	246(10%)	227(9%)	192(8%)	209(9%)	1153(9%)
Un-filled Gaps Up	120(43%)	88(36%)	76(33%)	73(38%)	73(35%)	430(37%)
Gapped Down	436(19%)	243(10%)	204(8%)	220(9%)	214(9%)	1317(11%)
Un-filled Gaps Down	174(40%)	74(30%)	50(25%)	68(31%)	54(25%)	420(32%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Soybeans(CBOT)
UNCH	>0%- <1%	+1%- <2%	+2%- <3%	+3%- <4%	+4%- <5%	+5%- <6%	+6%- <7%	+7%- <8%	+8%- <9%	+9%- <10%	+10%- <20%	>+20%
190	3694	1624	500	198	64	24	7	0	0	0	0	0
	<0%- >-1%	-1%- >-2%	-2%- >-3%	-3%- >-4%	-4%- >-5%	-5%- >-6%	-6%- >-7%	-7%- >-8%	-8%- >-9%	-9%- >-10%	-10%- >-20%	<-20%
	3534	1514	479	216	76	23	7	3	2	0	0	0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the CBOT Soybeans futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Soybeans: No 1 yellow Cent-Ill. - Apr 25, 2024
	Period Low(Jan-Dec)		Period High(Jan-Dec)		Last Day		Average
Year	Date	Price	Date	Price	Date	Price	Price
2023	10/11/2023	1210.00	07/03/2023	1581.00	12/29/2023	1268.00	1393.57
2022	10/24/2022	1316.00	06/10/2022	1770.00	12/30/2022	1502.00	1534.98
2021	10/13/2021	1157.00	05/12/2021	1669.50	12/31/2021	1310.00	1363.22
2020	03/16/2020	809.00	12/31/2020	1305.50	12/31/2020	1305.50	939.33
2019	05/13/2019	751.00	12/31/2019	937.00	12/31/2019	937.00	852.47
2018	09/18/2018	745.00	03/05/2018	1033.50	12/31/2018	834.50	888.61
2017	06/22/2017	878.00	01/18/2017	1045.00	12/29/2017	919.00	944.35
2016	03/01/2016	840.00	06/30/2016	1157.50	12/30/2016	977.00	968.90
2015	09/22/2015	842.00	06/30/2015 07/01/2015	1046.50	12/31/2015	863.00	935.83
2014	10/03/2014	882.50	05/22/2014	1528.50	12/31/2014	1010.00	1248.58
2013	11/06/2013	1248.00	07/09/2013	1610.00	12/31/2013	1303.50	1418.21
2012	01/13/2012	1135.00	07/20/2012	1790.00	12/31/2012	1420.50	1456.15
2011	12/14/2011	1080.00	08/31/2011	1439.50	12/30/2011	1182.50	1297.08
2010	02/03/2010	887.00	12/28/2010	1350.50	12/31/2010	1341.50	1033.22
2009	03/02/2009	834.50	06/11/2009	1259.50	12/31/2009	1021.50	1020.88
2008	12/05/2008	759.50	07/03/2008	1618.50	12/31/2008	958.00	1190.03
2007	01/09/2007	632.00	12/26/2007	1180.50	12/31/2007	1158.00	820.51
2006	09/06/2006 09/12/2006	504.50	11/30/2006 12/01/2006	660.00	12/29/2006	652.50	564.97
2005	02/04/2005	497.00	06/24/2005	733.63	12/30/2005	588.00	593.47
2004	10/13/2004	480.00	03/22/2004	1040.63	12/30/2004	540.63	743.88
2003	07/31/2003	533.63	10/29/2003	782.63	12/31/2003	779.00	627.37
2002	01/02/2002	410.00	08/15/2002	594.00	12/31/2002	560.63	505.56
2001	10/22/2001	398.50	07/17/2001	520.00	12/31/2001	413.63	447.34
2000	08/07/2000	429.50	05/03/2000 05/04/2000 05/11/2000	541.50	12/29/2000	487.50	480.41
1999	07/08/1999	387.50	01/06/1999	542.00	12/30/1999	447.50	456.71

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the June Soybeans(CBOT) futures contracts.

Scenario^SM Study for November Soybeans(CBOT) as of Apr 25, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	25	24	22	21	19	21	19	22	17	26
Exceeded High		19	24	20	20	16	19	15	12	16	13	17
Scenario Percentage		79%	96%	83%	91%	76%	100%	71%	63%	73%	76%	65%
Avg Max Increase		8.63%	6.64%	6.12%	7.76%	12.91%	12.08%	13.18%	11.01%	9.65%	8.53%	4.76%
Max Increase		28.07%	21.06%	13.23%	25.93%	46.60%	28.49%	53.92%	33.40%	36.42%	20.87%	9.12%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	17	14	17	17	14	15	14	16	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.92%	-1.86%	-1.66%	-1.94%	-2.43%	-2.26%	-0.90%	-3.13%	-1.30%	-2.46%	-1.11%
Max Decline		-8.74%	-7.68%	-5.65%	-6.24%	-9.87%	-6.79%	-5.64%	-7.66%	-4.33%	-6.99%	-4.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	8	8	12	11	6	5	8	4	5	2
2024 Contract Condition					Yes
Action					Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.

Tested Month

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Tested Years

Closed Lower

Penetrated Low

Scenario Percentage

67%

75%

76%

83%

71%

88%

96%

81%

78%

86%

37%

Avg Max Decline

5.36%

5.23%

5.99%

5.63%

8.85%

8.42%

9.06%

7.72%

7.57%

6.04%

4.14%

Max Decline

13.82%

17.04%

11.66%

14.34%

17.25%

20.11%

17.83%

26.00%

37.69%

21.05%

9.45%

Avg Days To Max Decline

Avg Max Increase

-1.26%

-2.08%

-1.84%

-2.35%

-2.79%

-4.30%

-3.64%

-2.70%

-1.88%

-1.57%

-0.99%

Max Increase

-3.68%

-6.50%

-3.43%

-7.52%

-9.28%

-13.29%

-12.72%

-14.59%

-6.06%

-4.32%

-1.70%

Avg Days to Max Increase

2024 Contract Condition

Yes

Action

Yes

Not Yet

High

1317.00

1292.25

1237.00

1199.00

1216.00

1195.00

Low

1261.00

1244.50

1173.25

1122.75

1129.75

1146.75

Close/Last

1294.00

1245.75

1199.75

1133.25

1186.25

1175.50

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