MRCI's Futures Highlight - Soybean Meal(CBOT)

MRCI's Futures Highlight - Soybean Meal(CBOT)

MRCI hopes this profile of the CBOT Soybean Meal futures contract, with its statistics and feature studies, will help you derive wise trading decisions from its presentation of long-term perspective, computer analysis, and historical background. This additional history is designed to complement the body of knowledge contained in any seasonal patterns and strategies published. The weekly and monthly charts on this page depict prices for nearby contracts, which most closely reflect the underlying cash market.

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Some data provided by barchart

The table below offers a statistical analysis of historical daily trading in the CBOT Soybean Meal futures. The average range for each day of the week in each year and overall has been computed for purposes of comparison and further insight into the dynamics of this market. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Range Detail for Soybean Meal(CBOT) from 1/1976 - 3/2024
Calendar Year	Monday Avg Rng	Tuesday Avg Rng	Wednesday Avg Rng	Thursday Avg Rng	Friday Avg Rng	Yearly Avg Rng
1976	4.91($491)	4.55($455)	4.22($422)	4.84($484)	4.26($426)	4.56($456)
1977	6.28($628)	5.84($584)	6.13($613)	5.65($565)	5.53($553)	5.88($588)
1978	3.98($398)	3.35($335)	3.42($342)	3.75($375)	3.27($327)	3.55($355)
1979	3.80($380)	3.41($341)	3.20($320)	3.46($346)	3.27($327)	3.42($342)
1980	5.05($505)	4.17($417)	3.95($395)	4.36($436)	4.33($433)	4.36($436)
1981	4.85($485)	3.67($367)	3.30($330)	3.72($372)	3.34($334)	3.77($377)
1982	2.56($256)	2.11($211)	2.30($230)	2.31($231)	2.23($223)	2.30($230)
1983	4.70($470)	4.31($431)	4.40($440)	4.66($466)	4.12($412)	4.43($443)
1984	3.22($322)	3.54($354)	3.35($335)	3.32($332)	3.43($343)	3.37($337)
1985	2.61($261)	2.51($251)	2.14($214)	2.20($220)	2.28($228)	2.34($234)
1986	1.83($183)	1.75($175)	1.88($188)	2.03($203)	1.86($186)	1.87($187)
1987	3.87($387)	2.96($296)	3.26($326)	3.25($325)	2.91($291)	3.25($325)
1988	6.40($640)	5.92($592)	5.72($572)	6.18($618)	5.89($589)	6.01($601)
1989	4.59($459)	3.25($325)	3.55($355)	3.57($357)	3.57($357)	3.69($369)
1990	3.43($343)	2.61($261)	2.87($287)	2.77($277)	3.22($322)	2.98($298)
1991	3.36($336)	2.91($291)	3.05($305)	2.84($284)	2.85($285)	3.00($300)
1992	2.21($221)	2.03($203)	2.22($222)	1.84($184)	1.91($191)	2.04($204)
1993	2.90($290)	2.52($252)	2.63($263)	2.72($272)	2.49($249)	2.65($265)
1994	2.87($287)	2.38($238)	2.25($225)	2.18($218)	2.02($202)	2.33($233)
1995	3.45($345)	2.55($255)	2.28($228)	2.42($242)	2.57($257)	2.64($264)
1996	4.90($490)	4.07($407)	3.85($385)	3.99($399)	3.63($363)	4.08($408)
1997	6.29($629)	5.26($526)	5.22($522)	5.03($503)	5.48($548)	5.45($545)
1998	3.36($336)	3.44($344)	3.34($334)	3.50($350)	3.78($378)	3.48($348)
1999	3.23($323)	3.04($304)	3.01($301)	3.00($300)	2.87($287)	3.03($303)
2000	3.46($346)	2.89($289)	3.05($305)	3.27($327)	3.28($328)	3.19($319)
2001	3.14($314)	2.82($282)	2.95($295)	2.99($299)	3.03($303)	2.98($298)
2002	3.74($374)	2.95($295)	3.41($341)	3.23($323)	3.14($314)	3.29($329)
2003	4.20($420)	4.51($451)	3.96($396)	4.11($411)	4.15($415)	4.19($419)
2004	7.65($765)	6.99($699)	7.65($765)	7.60($760)	6.37($637)	7.25($725)
2005	5.23($523)	5.08($508)	4.65($465)	4.59($459)	4.58($458)	4.82($482)
2006	4.22($422)	3.29($329)	3.42($342)	3.50($350)	3.74($374)	3.62($362)
2007	6.37($637)	6.11($611)	5.67($567)	5.57($557)	6.84($684)	6.11($611)
2008	14.43($1443)	14.49($1449)	13.56($1356)	12.53($1253)	13.73($1373)	13.75($1375)
2009	11.76($1176)	10.60($1060)	9.75($975)	11.45($1145)	10.37($1037)	10.77($1077)
2010	7.11($711)	7.11($711)	6.83($683)	7.23($723)	7.06($706)	7.07($707)
2011	7.65($765)	8.28($828)	7.82($782)	8.23($823)	8.23($823)	8.05($805)
2012	10.82($1082)	10.18($1018)	10.85($1085)	10.47($1047)	10.07($1007)	10.48($1048)
2013	11.25($1125)	10.92($1092)	9.16($916)	10.44($1044)	10.76($1076)	10.50($1050)
2014	12.06($1206)	10.84($1084)	10.12($1012)	11.84($1184)	10.21($1021)	11.00($1100)
2015	6.49($649)	7.09($709)	6.33($633)	6.62($662)	6.06($606)	6.52($652)
2016	8.22($822)	8.00($800)	7.53($753)	8.25($825)	8.00($800)	7.99($799)
2017	5.32($532)	5.63($563)	4.76($476)	5.97($597)	5.05($505)	5.34($534)
2018	7.08($708)	6.65($665)	6.38($638)	6.37($637)	7.01($701)	6.69($669)
2019	4.46($446)	4.62($462)	4.38($438)	4.72($472)	4.31($431)	4.50($450)
2020	6.08($608)	5.76($576)	5.98($598)	6.21($621)	5.71($571)	5.95($595)
2021	9.47($947)	9.57($957)	9.44($944)	9.17($917)	8.60($860)	9.25($925)
2022	12.54($1254)	12.80($1280)	11.75($1175)	12.27($1227)	11.79($1179)	12.22($1222)
2023	10.52($1052)	10.84($1084)	10.72($1072)	10.03($1003)	10.84($1084)	10.59($1059)
2024	7.11($711)	7.42($742)	7.55($755)	8.31($831)	8.95($895)	7.89($789)

What other characteristics do CBOT Soybean Meal futures exhibit for various days of the week? We ran various studies for the last 180 calendar days of trading prior to trading prior to expiration for each contract. (from futstats, but I don't currently have it available for include)

MRCI's Nearby Futures Summary for Soybean Meal(CBOT) from 1/1976 - 3/2024
Summary Item	Monday Summary	Tuesday Summary	Wednesday Summary	Thursday Summary	Friday Summary	Yearly Summary
Range	5.78($578)	5.44($544)	5.27($527)	5.44($544)	5.32($532)	5.45($545)
Closed Up	1100(48%)	1189(48%)	1262(51%)	1177(48%)	1192(49%)	5920(49%)
Closed Dn	1148(50%)	1234(50%)	1194(48%)	1222(50%)	1187(49%)	5985(49%)
Closed Uchg	40(2%)	60(2%)	37(1%)	48(2%)	42(2%)	227(2%)
Gapped up	268(12%)	247(10%)	251(10%)	239(10%)	243(10%)	1248(10%)
Un-filled Gaps Up	102(38%)	90(36%)	85(34%)	84(35%)	79(33%)	440(35%)
Gapped Down	359(16%)	221(9%)	225(9%)	217(9%)	213(9%)	1235(10%)
Un-filled Gaps Down	157(44%)	67(30%)	51(23%)	58(27%)	60(28%)	393(32%)

Daily Percent Change Summary for Soybean Meal(CBOT)
UNCH	>0%- <1%	+1%- <2%	+2%- <3%	+3%- <4%	+4%- <5%	+5%- <6%	+6%- <7%	+7%- <8%	+8%- <9%	+9%- <10%	+10%- <20%	>+20%
227	3237	1605	656	243	113	44	15	7	0	0	0	0
	<0%- >-1%	-1%- >-2%	-2%- >-3%	-3%- >-4%	-4%- >-5%	-5%- >-6%	-6%- >-7%	-7%- >-8%	-8%- >-9%	-9%- >-10%	-10%- >-20%	<-20%
	3416	1652	555	203	99	44	10	5	1	0	0	0

The table below represents yearly low, high, last yield in the cash market for the CBOT Soybean Meal futures contracts. Quotes are from daily cash market price activity.

Soybean Meal: Cent-Ill - Jun 08, 2020
	Period Low(Jan-Dec)		Period High(Jan-Dec)		Last Day		Average
Year	Date	Price	Date	Price	Date	Price	Price
2019	05/10/2019 05/13/2019	284.30 284.30	06/17/2019	333.30	12/31/2019	300.90	305.77
2018	01/02/2018	299.90	05/01/2018	411.40	12/31/2018	310.40	344.60
2017	06/01/2017	293.50	01/18/2017	350.60	12/29/2017	310.10	314.99
2016	02/26/2016	267.70	06/02/2016	424.80	12/30/2016	320.40	328.75
2015	12/31/2015	276.80	01/05/2015	420.00	12/31/2015	276.80	340.84
2014	10/01/2014	340.30	09/09/2014	618.70	12/31/2014	418.10	477.35
2013	04/05/2013	401.80	07/22/2013	590.40	12/31/2013	493.70	466.00
2012	01/13/2012	295.00	08/21/2012	584.60	12/31/2012	438.10	440.21
2011	12/09/2011	264.40	01/14/2011	381.60	12/30/2011	301.90	333.45
2010	03/12/2010	263.30	12/28/2010	371.60	12/31/2010	368.40	313.85
2009	03/05/2009	274.80	08/31/2009	507.50	12/31/2009	336.40	348.04
2008	10/15/2008	231.50	07/03/2008	452.00	12/31/2008	301.50	330.76
2007	01/09/2007	177.20	12/26/2007	333.70	12/31/2007	328.50	230.98
2006	08/10/2006	156.60	01/03/2006	204.70	12/29/2006	184.90	175.59
2005	02/07/2005	155.70	06/20/2005	232.90	12/30/2005	203.80	188.04
2004	11/05/2004	148.00	07/06/2004	360.00	12/30/2004	165.60	236.85
2003	01/13/2003 01/15/2003	160.00 160.00	11/03/2003	259.00	12/31/2003	239.00	198.56
2002	01/02/2002	149.50	08/13/2002	197.00	12/31/2002	166.50	168.77
2001	12/31/2001	150.50	01/02/2001	196.50	12/31/2001	150.50	168.59
2000	08/07/2000	148.00	12/22/2000	200.00	12/29/2000	199.00	174.63
1999	02/25/1999	123.00	10/13/1999 11/04/1999 11/05/1999	159.00 159.00 159.00	12/30/1999	154.25	141.47
1998	10/02/1998	123.00	01/20/1998	206.25	12/31/1998	143.50	162.26
1997	12/31/1997	208.50	05/09/1997	314.50	12/31/1997	208.50	266.26
1996	03/19/1996 03/20/1996	221.00 221.00	09/12/1996	283.00	12/31/1996	244.00	246.56
1995	03/01/1995 03/02/1995 03/03/1995	149.00 149.00 149.00	12/19/1995 12/29/1995	231.00 231.00	12/29/1995	231.00	173.58
1994	12/01/1994	150.00	01/03/1994 06/15/1994 06/17/1994	205.50 205.50 205.50	12/30/1994	153.00	182.47

The table below represents Scenario Analysis for the July Soybean Meal(CBOT) futures contracts.

Scenario^SM Study for December Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of May 31, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	25	24	22	22	21	18	26	18	24	24
Exceeded High		19	18	19	18	17	16	12	23	15	16	10
Scenario Percentage		83%	72%	79%	82%	77%	76%	67%	88%	83%	67%	42%
Avg Max Increase		8.30%	7.37%	10.66%	14.52%	13.73%	12.04%	11.64%	11.16%	13.86%	9.79%	8.09%
Max Increase		25.95%	14.06%	36.01%	52.81%	32.39%	30.45%	29.58%	39.86%	31.35%	22.70%	14.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	19	15	15	16	17	19	16	15	12	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.10%	-1.94%	-2.60%	-2.06%	-2.13%	-2.15%	-4.72%	-2.10%	-2.07%	-2.25%	-0.83%
Max Decline		-7.74%	-5.44%	-7.95%	-7.71%	-6.58%	-10.98%	-8.86%	-15.85%	-7.84%	-6.35%	-3.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	12	14	7	7	8	9	8	6	6	1
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.

Tested Month

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Tested Years

Closed Lower

Penetrated Low

Scenario Percentage

73%

65%

71%

74%

100%

88%

78%

89%

76%

57%

Avg Max Decline

6.28%

6.65%

5.34%

6.84%

6.71%

9.04%

7.74%

7.78%

6.21%

5.34%

5.86%

Max Decline

19.62%

13.66%

13.88%

13.77%

18.87%

18.07%

24.50%

34.83%

18.14%

12.73%

24.99%

Avg Days To Max Decline

Avg Max Increase

-1.19%

-2.43%

-2.62%

-2.49%

-4.50%

-3.01%

-1.97%

-2.73%

-2.08%

-2.23%

-0.96%

Max Increase

-5.77%

-7.61%

-9.16%

-9.66%

-16.12%

-12.96%

-8.26%

-7.05%

-7.10%

-7.41%

-3.13%

Avg Days to Max Increase

2023 Contract Condition

Yes

Action

Yes

Not Yet

High

428.40

415.50

428.10

437.70

424.50

410.10

Low

391.50

388.90

393.30

397.80

399.50

361.80

Close/Last

411.60

394.30

415.60

419.80

405.20

365.00

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