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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Oct 31, 2017
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Oct 22405.00 23485.00 22416.00 23377.00 90% 45 27 24 89% 23485.00 24805.39 23377.00
#NDX Higher Oct 5979.30 6258.40 5955.80 6248.60 97% 31 20 18 90% 6258.40 6868.42 6248.60
#RUT Higher Oct 1490.85 1514.95 1482.55 1502.85 63% 38 21 18 86% 1514.95 1636.05 1502.85
#SP Higher Oct 2519.35 2583.00 2520.40 2575.25 88% 45 27 23 85% 2583.00 2741.16 2575.25
SFH8 Lower Oct 104.47 104.42 100.64 101.19 15% 42 20 17 85% 100.64 97.03 101.19
JYH8 Lower Oct 89.67 90.26 88.08 88.60 24% 41 24 21 88% 88.08 84.30 88.60
SH8 Higher Oct 987.75 1022.25 972.50 995.00 45% 45 25 21 84% 1022.25 1091.91 995.00
WK8 Lower Oct 479.25 481.50 446.75 449.25 7% 45 19 16 84% 446.75 411.40 449.25
HEJ8 Higher Oct 69.850 75.280 69.830 74.900 93% 45 25 21 84% 75.280 81.360 74.900
KCH8 Lower Oct 131.65 136.25 126.60 128.60 21% 44 23 20 87% 126.60 115.33 128.60
CCH8 Higher Oct 2034 2148 1980 2089 65% 45 15 13 87% 2148 2323 2089
CCK8 Higher Oct 2042 2157 1991 2097 64% 45 14 13 93% 2157 2329 2097
LBH8 Higher Oct 384.5 435.0 385.0 434.0 98% 44 28 24 86% 435.0 473.3 434.0


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 22405.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 23377.00(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 22416.00(Month Low) to 23485.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in October than September in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #DJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 23485.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 24805.39(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 5979.30(Prev Close), the market ended October at 6248.60(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 5955.80(Month Low) to 6258.40(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #NDX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 6258.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 6868.42(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1490.85(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1502.85(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 1482.55(Month Low) to 1514.95(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in October than September in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #RUT went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1514.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1636.05(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2519.35(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2575.25(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 2520.40(Month Low) to 2583.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in October than September in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #SP went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2583.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 2741.16(Average Objective).

March Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFH8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 104.47(Prev Close), the market ended October at 101.19(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 100.64(Month Low) to 104.42(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SFH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFH should penetrate 100.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 97.03(Average Objective).

March Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYH8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 89.67(Prev Close), the market ended October at 88.60(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 88.08(Month Low) to 90.26(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, JYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 88.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 84.30(Average Objective).

March Soybeans(CBOT)
The SH8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 987.75(Prev Close), the market ended October at 995.00(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 972.50(Month Low) to 1022.25(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should exceed 1022.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1091.91(Average Objective).

May Wheat(CBOT)
The WK8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 479.25(Prev Close), the market ended October at 449.25(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 446.75(Month Low) to 481.50(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, WK went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WK should penetrate 446.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 411.40(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEJ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 69.850(Prev Close), the market ended October at 74.900(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 69.830(Month Low) to 75.280(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, HEJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEJ should exceed 75.280(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 81.360(Average Objective).

March Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCH8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 131.65(Prev Close), the market ended October at 128.60(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 126.60(Month Low) to 136.25(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, KCH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should penetrate 126.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 115.33(Average Objective).

March Cocoa(ICE)
The CCH8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2034(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2089(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 1980(Month Low) to 2148(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CCH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should exceed 2148(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2323(Average Objective).

May Cocoa(ICE)
The CCK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2042(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2097(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 1991(Month Low) to 2157(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CCK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 2157(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2329(Average Objective).

March Lumber(CME)
The LBH8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 384.5(Prev Close), the market ended October at 434.0(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 385.0(Month Low) to 435.0(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LBH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 435.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 473.3(Average Objective).
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