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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Oct 31, 2013
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Oct 15130.00 15721.00 14719.00 15546.00 83% 45 26 23 88% 15721.00 16589.30 15546.00
#TRAN Higher Oct 29.30 3272.60 33.90 421.80 12% 43 29 26 90% 3272.60 3312.42 421.80
#UTIL Higher Oct 482.29 509.30 476.97 499.87 71% 43 27 24 89% 509.30 533.69 499.87
#NDX Higher Oct 3218.20 3408.30 3117.70 3377.70 89% 27 17 15 88% 3408.30 3771.26 3377.70
#SP Higher Oct 1681.55 1775.20 1646.45 1756.55 86% 45 26 22 85% 1775.20 1883.16 1756.55
USH4 Higher Oct 131~290 134~080 130~110 133~120 78% 36 18 16 89% 134~080 139~235 133~120
TYH4 Higher Oct 125~025 126~250 124~070 126~030 73% 31 19 18 95% 126~250 129~289 126~030
EUH4 Higher Oct 135.31 138.34 134.79 135.94 32% 14 8 7 88% 138.34 143.42 135.94
JYH4 Lower Oct 101.94 103.58 101.14 101.79 27% 37 20 17 85% 101.14 97.38 101.79
ADH4 Higher Oct 92.26 96.61 91.99 93.75 38% 26 17 15 88% 96.61 100.33 93.75
PLJ4 Higher Oct 1416.6 1483.0 1364.3 1450.7 73% 43 19 16 84% 1483.0 1613.0 1450.7
CLG4 Lower Oct 100.16 102.52 95.96 96.66 11% 30 15 14 93% 95.96 84.98 96.66
CLH4 Lower Oct 99.13 101.81 95.54 96.47 15% 30 15 14 93% 95.54 85.15 96.47
CLJ4 Lower Oct 98.14 101.00 94.97 96.10 19% 29 16 15 94% 94.97 85.12 96.10
CLK4 Lower Oct 97.27 100.11 94.51 95.61 20% 29 16 15 94% 94.51 85.32 95.61
LEJ4 Higher Oct 89.250 96.450 88.280 93.385 62% 44 24 21 88% 96.450 104.152 93.385
KCH4 Lower Oct 116.85 121.05 108.40 108.55 1% 40 20 17 85% 108.40 98.87 108.55
CCH4 Higher Oct 2643 2775 2566 2688 58% 45 15 13 87% 2775 3022 2688
CCK4 Higher Oct 2643 2772 2562 2686 59% 45 14 13 93% 2772 3013 2686
LBH4 Higher Oct 353.0 380.5 343.0 375.2 86% 40 26 23 88% 380.5 414.7 375.2


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 15130.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 15546.00(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 14719.00(Month Low) to 15721.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 15721.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 16589.30(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 29.30(Prev Close), the market ended October at 421.80(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 33.90(Month Low) to 3272.60(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in October than September in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #TRAN went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 3272.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 3312.42(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 482.29(Prev Close), the market ended October at 499.87(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 476.97(Month Low) to 509.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in October than September in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #UTIL went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 509.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 533.69(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 3218.20(Prev Close), the market ended October at 3377.70(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 3117.70(Month Low) to 3408.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #NDX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 3408.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 3771.26(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1681.55(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1756.55(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 1646.45(Month Low) to 1775.20(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #SP went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1775.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1883.16(Average Objective).

March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 131~290(Prev Close), the market ended October at 133~120(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 130~110(Month Low) to 134~080(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, USH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 134~080(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 139~235(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 125~025(Prev Close), the market ended October at 126~030(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 124~070(Month Low) to 126~250(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, TYH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 126~250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 129~289(Average Objective).

March EuroFX(CME)
The EUH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 135.31(Prev Close), the market ended October at 135.94(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 134.79(Month Low) to 138.34(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, EUH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUH should exceed 138.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 143.42(Average Objective).

March Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 101.94(Prev Close), the market ended October at 101.79(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 101.14(Month Low) to 103.58(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, JYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 101.14(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 97.38(Average Objective).

March Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 92.26(Prev Close), the market ended October at 93.75(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 91.99(Month Low) to 96.61(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, ADH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADH should exceed 96.61(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 100.33(Average Objective).

April Platinum(NYMEX)
The PLJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1416.6(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1450.7(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 1364.3(Month Low) to 1483.0(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, PLJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1483.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1613.0(Average Objective).

February Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLG4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 100.16(Prev Close), the market ended October at 96.66(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 95.96(Month Low) to 102.52(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CLG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should penetrate 95.96(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 84.98(Average Objective).

March Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 99.13(Prev Close), the market ended October at 96.47(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 95.54(Month Low) to 101.81(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CLH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should penetrate 95.54(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 85.15(Average Objective).

April Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLJ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 98.14(Prev Close), the market ended October at 96.10(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 94.97(Month Low) to 101.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLJ should penetrate 94.97(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 85.12(Average Objective).

May Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLK4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 97.27(Prev Close), the market ended October at 95.61(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 94.51(Month Low) to 100.11(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLK went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should penetrate 94.51(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 85.32(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 89.250(Prev Close), the market ended October at 93.385(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 88.280(Month Low) to 96.450(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, LEJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEJ should exceed 96.450(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 104.152(Average Objective).

March Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 116.85(Prev Close), the market ended October at 108.55(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 108.40(Month Low) to 121.05(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KCH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should penetrate 108.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 98.87(Average Objective).

March Cocoa(ICE)
The CCH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2643(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2688(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 2566(Month Low) to 2775(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CCH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should exceed 2775(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 3022(Average Objective).

May Cocoa(ICE)
The CCK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2643(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2686(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 2562(Month Low) to 2772(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CCK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 2772(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 3013(Average Objective).

March Lumber(CME)
The LBH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 353.0(Prev Close), the market ended October at 375.2(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 343.0(Month Low) to 380.5(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LBH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 380.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 414.7(Average Objective).
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