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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Aug 31, 2013
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
EDZ3 Higher Aug 99.680 99.705 99.660 99.700 89% 31 23 22 96% 99.705 100.255 99.700
EDH4 Higher Aug 99.630 99.650 99.595 99.640 82% 31 22 21 95% 99.650 100.231 99.640
GCZ3 Higher Aug 1313.0 1434.0 1271.8 1396.1 77% 38 20 17 85% 1434.0 1578.2 1396.1
GCG4 Higher Aug 1314.1 1433.7 1274.0 1396.8 77% 38 20 17 85% 1433.7 1577.4 1396.8
HOZ3 Higher Aug 305.15 321.16 293.40 312.74 70% 34 18 18 100% 321.16 347.70 312.74
HOF4 Higher Aug 304.87 320.01 294.06 312.03 69% 34 18 18 100% 320.01 344.72 312.03
HOG4 Higher Aug 304.13 317.84 293.49 310.55 70% 34 18 18 100% 317.84 341.96 310.55
HOH4 Higher Aug 302.47 315.00 291.88 308.29 71% 34 18 17 94% 315.00 338.63 308.29
RBZ3 Higher Aug 276.31 290.32 263.80 282.47 70% 28 15 14 93% 290.32 315.06 282.47
RBF4 Higher Aug 274.44 287.26 262.98 280.88 74% 28 14 13 93% 287.26 307.71 280.88
RBG4 Higher Aug 273.92 286.93 262.37 280.26 73% 28 14 13 93% 286.93 305.62 280.26
RBH4 Higher Aug 274.81 287.36 264.72 280.90 71% 26 13 12 92% 287.36 305.65 280.90
NGG4 Higher Aug 3.844 3.994 3.570 3.928 84% 23 8 7 88% 3.994 4.715 3.928
NGH4 Higher Aug 3.813 3.950 3.540 3.895 87% 23 10 9 90% 3.950 4.365 3.895
ITCOZ3 Higher Aug 105.75 114.44 103.29 110.99 69% 23 13 11 85% 114.44 129.28 110.99
ITCOF4 Higher Aug 105.21 113.31 102.77 109.89 68% 23 13 11 85% 113.31 127.85 109.89
LCZ3 Higher Aug 128.385 130.900 126.850 130.485 90% 45 21 19 90% 130.900 137.373 130.485
LCG4 Higher Aug 129.950 132.300 128.385 131.650 83% 45 18 16 89% 132.300 137.348 131.650
LCJ4 Higher Aug 130.985 133.100 129.550 132.735 90% 45 19 16 84% 133.100 137.158 132.735
LEZ3 Higher Aug 80.500 84.800 80.500 84.750 99% 43 15 13 87% 84.800 91.707 84.750
LEJ4 Higher Aug 83.980 86.250 83.550 86.000 91% 43 14 12 86% 86.250 92.331 86.000
JOH4 Lower Aug 145.00 145.95 130.45 138.55 52% 44 20 17 85% 130.45 120.12 138.55


December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.680(Prev Close), the market ended August at 99.700(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 99.660(Month Low) to 99.705(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.705(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 100.255(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.630(Prev Close), the market ended August at 99.640(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 99.595(Month Low) to 99.650(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.650(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 100.231(Average Objective).

December Gold(CMX)
The GCZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1313.0(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1396.1(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 1271.8(Month Low) to 1434.0(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Gold(CMX) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, GCZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCZ should exceed 1434.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1578.2(Average Objective).

February Gold(CMX)
The GCG4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1314.1(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1396.8(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 1274.0(Month Low) to 1433.7(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Gold(CMX) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, GCG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCG should exceed 1433.7(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1577.4(Average Objective).

December Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 305.15(Prev Close), the market ended August at 312.74(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 293.40(Month Low) to 321.16(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, HOZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOZ should exceed 321.16(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 347.70(Average Objective).

January Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOF4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 304.87(Prev Close), the market ended August at 312.03(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 294.06(Month Low) to 320.01(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, HOF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOF should exceed 320.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 344.72(Average Objective).

February Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOG4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 304.13(Prev Close), the market ended August at 310.55(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 293.49(Month Low) to 317.84(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, HOG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should exceed 317.84(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 341.96(Average Objective).

March Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 302.47(Prev Close), the market ended August at 308.29(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 291.88(Month Low) to 315.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, HOH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should exceed 315.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 338.63(Average Objective).

December Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 276.31(Prev Close), the market ended August at 282.47(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 263.80(Month Low) to 290.32(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, RBZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBZ should exceed 290.32(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 315.06(Average Objective).

January Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBF4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 274.44(Prev Close), the market ended August at 280.88(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 262.98(Month Low) to 287.26(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RBF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBF should exceed 287.26(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 307.71(Average Objective).

February Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBG4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 273.92(Prev Close), the market ended August at 280.26(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 262.37(Month Low) to 286.93(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RBG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBG should exceed 286.93(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 305.62(Average Objective).

March Gasoline(NYMEX)
The RBH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 274.81(Prev Close), the market ended August at 280.90(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 264.72(Month Low) to 287.36(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RBH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBH should exceed 287.36(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 305.65(Average Objective).

February Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGG4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 3.844(Prev Close), the market ended August at 3.928(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 3.570(Month Low) to 3.994(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, NGG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should exceed 3.994(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 4.715(Average Objective).

March Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 3.813(Prev Close), the market ended August at 3.895(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 3.540(Month Low) to 3.950(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should exceed 3.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 4.365(Average Objective).

December Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 105.75(Prev Close), the market ended August at 110.99(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 103.29(Month Low) to 114.44(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ITCOZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOZ should exceed 114.44(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 129.28(Average Objective).

January Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOF4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 105.21(Prev Close), the market ended August at 109.89(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 102.77(Month Low) to 113.31(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ITCOF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOF should exceed 113.31(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 127.85(Average Objective).

December Live Cattle(CME)
The LCZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 128.385(Prev Close), the market ended August at 130.485(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 126.850(Month Low) to 130.900(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LCZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 130.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 137.373(Average Objective).

February Live Cattle(CME)
The LCG4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 129.950(Prev Close), the market ended August at 131.650(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 128.385(Month Low) to 132.300(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, LCG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 132.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 137.348(Average Objective).

April Live Cattle(CME)
The LCJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 130.985(Prev Close), the market ended August at 132.735(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 129.550(Month Low) to 133.100(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LCJ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 133.100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 137.158(Average Objective).

December Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 80.500(Prev Close), the market ended August at 84.750(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 80.500(Month Low) to 84.800(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, LEZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should exceed 84.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 91.707(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 83.980(Prev Close), the market ended August at 86.000(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 83.550(Month Low) to 86.250(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, LEJ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEJ should exceed 86.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 92.331(Average Objective).

March Orange Juice(ICE)
The JOH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 145.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at 138.55(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 130.45(Month Low) to 145.95(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, JOH went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOH should penetrate 130.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 120.12(Average Objective).
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