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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Nov 30, 2011
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Nov 11955.00 12188.00 11232.00 12046.00 85% 45 28 26 93% 12188.00 12841.26 12046.00
#TRAN Higher Nov 4892.60 5009.10 4531.80 4946.20 87% 41 30 27 90% 5009.10 5427.52 4946.20
USH2 Higher Nov 138~160 145~080 139~020 141~120 37% 34 25 21 84% 145~080 150~167 141~120
TYH2 Higher Nov 128~070 130~200 128~070 129~110 47% 29 16 15 94% 130~200 133~294 129~110
GCG2 Higher Nov 1727.3 1806.6 1670.5 1750.3 59% 36 19 16 84% 1806.6 1903.6 1750.3
GCJ2 Higher Nov 1728.9 1808.0 1677.1 1753.1 58% 36 19 17 89% 1808.0 1901.6 1753.1
CLH2 Higher Nov 92.92 103.20 88.85 100.55 82% 28 13 11 85% 103.20 116.59 100.55
CLJ2 Higher Nov 92.83 103.08 89.34 100.56 82% 28 13 11 85% 103.08 115.37 100.56
WH2 Lower Nov 664.50 682.00 586.00 614.00 29% 45 22 19 86% 586.00 537.37 614.00
WK2 Lower Nov 687.25 702.75 604.25 630.00 26% 45 24 21 88% 604.25 559.14 630.00
KWK2 Lower Nov 748.75 758.25 657.75 669.75 12% 35 19 16 84% 657.75 609.66 669.75
RRF2 Lower Nov 16.91 17.07 14.08 14.84 25% 25 13 11 85% 14.08 13.36 14.84
RRH2 Lower Nov 17.19 17.20 14.38 15.13 27% 25 12 11 92% 14.38 13.34 15.13
LCG2 Higher Nov 121.385 126.500 120.180 123.600 54% 45 27 24 89% 126.500 133.311 123.600
LCJ2 Higher Nov 125.550 129.750 124.100 126.700 46% 44 28 25 89% 129.750 136.668 126.700
FCF2 Higher Nov 144.650 149.950 143.250 146.030 41% 34 20 17 85% 149.950 156.191 146.030
FCH2 Higher Nov 145.550 150.885 144.180 148.180 60% 39 21 19 90% 150.885 158.651 148.180
LEJ2 Higher Nov 92.730 94.500 89.500 93.300 76% 42 29 25 86% 94.500 100.831 93.300
KCH2 Higher Nov 230.40 243.30 224.00 236.90 67% 38 20 17 85% 243.30 275.52 236.90

DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 11955.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 12046.00(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 11232.00(Month Low) to 12188.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in November than October in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 12188.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 12841.26(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 4892.60(Prev Close), the market ended November at 4946.20(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 4531.80(Month Low) to 5009.10(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in November than October in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #TRAN went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 5009.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 5427.52(Average Objective).

March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 138~160(Prev Close), the market ended November at 141~120(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 139~020(Month Low) to 145~080(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, USH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 145~080(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 150~167(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 128~070(Prev Close), the market ended November at 129~110(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 128~070(Month Low) to 130~200(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, TYH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 130~200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 133~294(Average Objective).

February Gold(CMX)
The GCG2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1727.3(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1750.3(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 1670.5(Month Low) to 1806.6(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Gold(CMX) also closed higher in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, GCG went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCG should exceed 1806.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1903.6(Average Objective).

April Gold(CMX)
The GCJ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1728.9(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1753.1(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 1677.1(Month Low) to 1808.0(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed higher in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, GCJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should exceed 1808.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1901.6(Average Objective).

March Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 92.92(Prev Close), the market ended November at 100.55(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 88.85(Month Low) to 103.20(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CLH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should exceed 103.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 116.59(Average Objective).

April Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLJ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 92.83(Prev Close), the market ended November at 100.56(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 89.34(Month Low) to 103.08(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CLJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLJ should exceed 103.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 115.37(Average Objective).

March Wheat(CBOT)
The WH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 664.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 614.00(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 586.00(Month Low) to 682.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, WH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WH should penetrate 586.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 537.37(Average Objective).

May Wheat(CBOT)
The WK2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 687.25(Prev Close), the market ended November at 630.00(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 604.25(Month Low) to 702.75(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WK should penetrate 604.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 559.14(Average Objective).

May Wheat(KCBT)
The KWK2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 748.75(Prev Close), the market ended November at 669.75(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 657.75(Month Low) to 758.25(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KWK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 657.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 609.66(Average Objective).

January Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRF2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 16.91(Prev Close), the market ended November at 14.84(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 14.08(Month Low) to 17.07(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRF went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRF should penetrate 14.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 13.36(Average Objective).

March Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 17.19(Prev Close), the market ended November at 15.13(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 14.38(Month Low) to 17.20(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, RRH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRH should penetrate 14.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 13.34(Average Objective).

February Live Cattle(CME)
The LCG2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 121.385(Prev Close), the market ended November at 123.600(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 120.180(Month Low) to 126.500(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LCG went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 126.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 133.311(Average Objective).

April Live Cattle(CME)
The LCJ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 125.550(Prev Close), the market ended November at 126.700(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 124.100(Month Low) to 129.750(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LCJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 129.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 136.668(Average Objective).

January Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCF2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 144.650(Prev Close), the market ended November at 146.030(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 143.250(Month Low) to 149.950(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, FCF went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should exceed 149.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 156.191(Average Objective).

March Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 145.550(Prev Close), the market ended November at 148.180(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 144.180(Month Low) to 150.885(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, FCH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should exceed 150.885(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 158.651(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEJ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 92.730(Prev Close), the market ended November at 93.300(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 89.500(Month Low) to 94.500(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, LEJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEJ should exceed 94.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 100.831(Average Objective).

March Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 230.40(Prev Close), the market ended November at 236.90(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 224.00(Month Low) to 243.30(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KCH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should exceed 243.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 275.52(Average Objective).

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Newsflash

For example...

Did you know that December Australian Dollars have closed higher on Nov. 7th than on Sept. 9th in 12 of the last 15 years?
See the facts: http://goo.gl/tquCtO

More historical Forex Facts are available in MRCI's Forex Report!

If you have ANY questions on this historical trading strategy, please just let us know - we are happy to help. (541) 933-5340!