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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Nov 30, 2008
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#UTIL Higher Nov 378.42 395.08 331.92 382.24 80% 38 21 18 86% 395.08 417.81 358.02
NDH9 Lower Nov 1340.00 1383.30 1041.50 1188.80 43% 12 2 2 100% 1041.50 830.46 1096.80
USH9 Higher Nov 111~26 128~12 111~07 127~16 95% 31 23 20 87% 128~12 132~26 130~21
TYH9 Higher Nov 111~015 121~055 111~015 120~310 98% 26 14 14 100% 121~055 123~320 122~170
EDM9 Higher Nov 97.580 98.205 97.610 98.075 78% 26 13 12 92% 98.205 98.936 98.175
SFH9 Lower Nov 86.81 86.30 82.09 82.89 19% 33 17 15 88% 82.09 78.91 83.69
ADH9 Lower Nov 66.18 69.10 60.92 65.30 54% 21 8 7 88% 60.92 59.39 64.21
HOH9 Lower Nov 214.37 222.61 171.30 177.06 11% 29 17 17 100% 171.30 154.28 166.36
HOJ9 Lower Nov 214.37 222.61 171.35 177.61 12% 28 17 17 100% 171.35 153.25 167.36
NGH9 Lower Nov 7.051 7.480 6.380 6.540 15% 18 13 11 85% 6.380 5.320 6.593
NGJ9 Lower Nov 6.981 7.389 6.380 6.525 14% 18 13 11 85% 6.380 5.533 6.586
KWH9 Lower Nov 590.50 639.00 548.50 581.50 36% 32 15 13 87% 548.50 509.11 554.00
KWK9 Lower Nov 602.50 649.00 559.75 592.00 36% 32 17 15 88% 559.75 519.90 564.50
KWH9 Lower Nov 590.50 639.00 548.50 581.50 36% 32 15 13 87% 548.50 509.11 554.00
MWK9 Lower Nov 632.25 678.50 590.75 615.25 28% 27 19 16 84% 590.75 560.63 593.00
LEJ9 Higher Nov 70.150 73.600 68.385 73.500 98% 39 26 23 88% 73.600 78.253 72.400
LEM9 Higher Nov 79.975 83.150 78.400 83.050 98% 39 29 25 86% 83.150 88.423 82.050
LEN9 Higher Nov 78.750 82.000 78.200 81.930 98% 38 28 24 86% 82.000 87.087 81.400
KCN9 Lower Nov 123.40 127.30 116.15 120.80 42% 35 14 12 86% 116.15 107.29 118.45


Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 378.42(Prev Close), the market ended November at 382.24(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 331.92(Month Low) to 395.08(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #UTIL went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 395.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 417.81(Average Objective).

March NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1340.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1188.80(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 1041.50(Month Low) to 1383.30(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 12 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed lower in November than October in 2(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 2, NDH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 2 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should penetrate 1041.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 2 years) a potential move toward 830.46(Average Objective).

March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 111~26(Prev Close), the market ended November at 127~16(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 111~07(Month Low) to 128~12(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, USH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 128~12(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 132~26(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 111~015(Prev Close), the market ended November at 120~310(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 111~015(Month Low) to 121~055(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, TYH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 121~055(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 123~320(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 97.580(Prev Close), the market ended November at 98.075(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 97.610(Month Low) to 98.205(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EDM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 98.205(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 98.936(Average Objective).

March Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 86.81(Prev Close), the market ended November at 82.89(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 82.09(Month Low) to 86.30(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, SFH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFH should penetrate 82.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 78.91(Average Objective).

March Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 66.18(Prev Close), the market ended November at 65.30(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 60.92(Month Low) to 69.10(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Australian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in November than October in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, ADH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADH should penetrate 60.92(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 59.39(Average Objective).

March Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 214.37(Prev Close), the market ended November at 177.06(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 171.30(Month Low) to 222.61(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, HOH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 171.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 154.28(Average Objective).

April Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOJ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 214.37(Prev Close), the market ended November at 177.61(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 171.35(Month Low) to 222.61(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, HOJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 171.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 153.25(Average Objective).

March Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 7.051(Prev Close), the market ended November at 6.540(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 6.380(Month Low) to 7.480(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should penetrate 6.380(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 5.320(Average Objective).

April Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGJ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 6.981(Prev Close), the market ended November at 6.525(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 6.380(Month Low) to 7.389(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should penetrate 6.380(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 5.533(Average Objective).

March Wheat(KCBT)
The KWH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 590.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 581.50(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 548.50(Month Low) to 639.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in November than October in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, KWH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should penetrate 548.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 509.11(Average Objective).

May Wheat(KCBT)
The KWK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 602.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 592.00(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 559.75(Month Low) to 649.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, KWK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 559.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 519.90(Average Objective).

March Wheat(KCBT)
The KWH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 590.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 581.50(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 548.50(Month Low) to 639.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in November than October in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, KWH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should penetrate 548.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 509.11(Average Objective).

May Wheat(MGE)
The MWK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 632.25(Prev Close), the market ended November at 615.25(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 590.75(Month Low) to 678.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, MWK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWK should penetrate 590.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 560.63(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEJ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 70.150(Prev Close), the market ended November at 73.500(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 68.385(Month Low) to 73.600(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LEJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEJ should exceed 73.600(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 78.253(Average Objective).

June Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 79.975(Prev Close), the market ended November at 83.050(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 78.400(Month Low) to 83.150(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, LEM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEM should exceed 83.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 88.423(Average Objective).

July Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEN9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 78.750(Prev Close), the market ended November at 81.930(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 78.200(Month Low) to 82.000(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LEN went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEN should exceed 82.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 87.087(Average Objective).

July Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCN9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 123.40(Prev Close), the market ended November at 120.80(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 116.15(Month Low) to 127.30(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, KCN went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 116.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 107.29(Average Objective).