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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Oct 31, 2008
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
TYH9 Lower Oct 113~140 116~230 109~250 111~005 18% 26 9 8 89% 109~250 107~289 111~005
ADH9 Lower Oct 78.28 78.18 60.23 66.18 33% 21 8 7 88% 60.23 58.82 66.18
CLG9 Lower Oct 100.80 98.17 63.72 69.22 16% 25 13 12 92% 63.72 56.34 69.22
CLH9 Lower Oct 101.10 98.41 64.23 69.92 17% 25 13 12 92% 64.23 57.19 69.92
HOG9 Lower Oct 296.07 290.79 199.65 213.27 15% 29 15 13 87% 199.65 173.51 213.27
HOH9 Lower Oct 295.92 290.39 201.00 214.37 15% 29 13 12 92% 201.00 175.33 214.37
MWH9 Lower Oct 761.75 763.00 581.00 634.50 29% 27 13 12 92% 581.00 555.12 634.50
MWK9 Lower Oct 771.50 769.00 587.50 632.25 25% 27 10 9 90% 587.50 560.43 632.25


March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 113~140(Prev Close), the market ended October at 111~005(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 109~250(Month Low) to 116~230(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, TYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should penetrate 109~250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 107~289(Average Objective).

March Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 78.28(Prev Close), the market ended October at 66.18(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 60.23(Month Low) to 78.18(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Australian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, ADH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADH should penetrate 60.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 58.82(Average Objective).

February Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLG9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 100.80(Prev Close), the market ended October at 69.22(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 63.72(Month Low) to 98.17(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CLG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should penetrate 63.72(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 56.34(Average Objective).

March Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 101.10(Prev Close), the market ended October at 69.92(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 64.23(Month Low) to 98.41(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CLH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should penetrate 64.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 57.19(Average Objective).

February Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOG9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 296.07(Prev Close), the market ended October at 213.27(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 199.65(Month Low) to 290.79(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, HOG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should penetrate 199.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 173.51(Average Objective).

March Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 295.92(Prev Close), the market ended October at 214.37(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 201.00(Month Low) to 290.39(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, HOH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 201.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 175.33(Average Objective).

March Wheat(MGE)
The MWH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 761.75(Prev Close), the market ended October at 634.50(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 581.00(Month Low) to 763.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, MWH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWH should penetrate 581.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 555.12(Average Objective).

May Wheat(MGE)
The MWK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 771.50(Prev Close), the market ended October at 632.25(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 587.50(Month Low) to 769.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(MGE) also closed lower in October than September in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, MWK went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the MWK should penetrate 587.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 560.43(Average Objective).