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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 35 43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher 20 26 29 21 21 20 15 16 19 21 15
Exceeded High 15 19 21 14 14 17 10 11 15 13 6
Scenario Percentage 75% 73% 72% 67% 67% 85% 67% 69% 79% 62% 40%
Avg Max Increase 7.81% 6.80% 6.26% 9.28% 9.11% 7.26% 11.54% 10.09% 15.48% 13.16% 5.82%
Max Increase 19.84% 10.67% 30.19% 28.79% 28.15% 19.63% 37.07% 35.10% 39.86% 32.52% 9.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase 16 13 17 17 16 16 20 15 16 14 7
Avg Max Decline -3.09% -1.86% -1.74% -2.13% -2.61% -2.28% -4.20% -2.97% -2.27% -1.74% -1.25%
Max Decline -7.47% -7.27% -7.47% -5.96% -9.19% -8.18% -14.54% -7.75% -9.71% -6.71% -3.08%
Avg Days to Max Decline 10 9 11 11 11 10 12 11 6 6 1
2007 Contract Condition Yes Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action Yes Yes   No     Yes   Yes Yes Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years 35 43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower 15 17 16 24 23 25 28 28 26 24 29
Penetrated Low 10 9 12 19 15 22 22 21 22 23 18
Scenario Percentage 67% 53% 75% 79% 65% 88% 79% 75% 85% 96% 62%
Avg Max Decline 6.54% 8.12% 7.36% 6.60% 5.62% 6.16% 6.65% 6.40% 7.51% 5.97% 7.21%
Max Decline 16.86% 15.11% 17.31% 25.84% 20.52% 12.71% 15.82% 18.62% 15.90% 13.18% 33.91%
Avg Days To Max Decline 15 19 15 17 18 17 21 19 18 11 10
Avg Max Increase -2.23% -2.18% -1.58% -1.46% -1.75% -1.87% -2.53% -3.37% -2.24% -3.05% -2.80%
Max Increase -5.33% -7.23% -4.56% -4.55% -8.23% -6.15% -6.17% -9.76% -7.68% -8.01% -20.17%
Avg Days to Max Increase 8 11 5 8 10 8 12 12 9 11 4
2007 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes   Yes      
Action     No   Yes Yes   Yes      
High 457.00 467.50 485.00 509.00 508.00 501.00 518.00 501.75 533.75 524.00 633.75
Low 411.00 421.00 437.00 453.75 474.50 460.50 472.00 445.00 426.00 468.00 514.50
Close/Last 455.00 460.00 458.50 505.00 497.50 488.00 498.50 453.75 495.50 517.00 582.00

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