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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for Nikkei 225 Index as of Apr 04, 2008 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
| Closed Higher |
16 |
13 |
15 |
11 |
14 |
9 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
| Exceeded High |
15 |
11 |
12 |
8 |
11 |
9 |
9 |
12 |
15 |
14 |
11 |
| Scenario Percentage |
94% |
85% |
80% |
73% |
79% |
100% |
69% |
75% |
88% |
88% |
73% |
| Avg Max Increase |
4.86% |
5.41% |
4.97% |
8.05% |
5.09% |
5.46% |
8.49% |
6.16% |
6.46% |
7.10% |
6.02% |
| Max Increase |
11.71% |
19.53% |
14.68% |
16.70% |
11.04% |
10.60% |
20.86% |
12.66% |
17.85% |
13.37% |
13.66% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
18 |
18 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
23 |
21 |
23 |
19 |
27 |
22 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.18% |
-1.63% |
-1.49% |
-1.81% |
-2.33% |
-2.06% |
-1.31% |
-2.19% |
-1.79% |
-3.42% |
-0.64% |
| Max Decline |
-4.88% |
-6.74% |
-6.89% |
-3.54% |
-4.94% |
-4.26% |
-4.77% |
-12.91% |
-7.33% |
-7.57% |
-4.84% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
9 |
6 |
10 |
9 |
14 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
16 |
9 |
| 2006 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Action |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
| Closed Lower |
10 |
13 |
11 |
15 |
12 |
17 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
| Penetrated Low |
5 |
10 |
9 |
11 |
9 |
14 |
7 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
9 |
| Scenario Percentage |
50% |
77% |
82% |
73% |
75% |
82% |
54% |
50% |
78% |
60% |
75% |
| Avg Max Decline |
11.27% |
7.39% |
10.16% |
10.92% |
9.08% |
9.16% |
10.73% |
9.49% |
8.75% |
12.90% |
14.92% |
| Max Decline |
16.92% |
15.74% |
26.28% |
33.39% |
23.85% |
22.05% |
20.46% |
19.82% |
17.87% |
22.47% |
31.84% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
22 |
16 |
19 |
15 |
12 |
16 |
24 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-3.93% |
-2.87% |
-2.75% |
-1.57% |
-2.23% |
-2.43% |
-3.08% |
-3.36% |
-1.43% |
-2.42% |
-2.50% |
| Max Increase |
-9.28% |
-8.14% |
-8.29% |
-4.60% |
-8.41% |
-9.98% |
-7.30% |
-4.91% |
-4.14% |
-5.77% |
-8.50% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
9 |
11 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
10 |
17 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
| 2006 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
| Action |
No |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No |
| High |
11912 |
11303 |
11595 |
11914 |
12612 |
13678 |
13784 |
15013 |
16446 |
16755 |
16777 |
| Low |
10771 |
10789 |
11148 |
11541 |
11615 |
12498 |
12996 |
13607 |
14880 |
15060 |
15390 |
| Close/Last |
11009 |
11277 |
11584 |
11900 |
12414 |
13574 |
13607 |
14872 |
16111 |
16650 |
16205 |
|
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