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ScenarioSM Study for Russell 2000 Index as of Oct 31, 2022 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
Tested Years | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | |
Closed Higher | 24 | 26 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 22 | 25 | 22 | 25 | 29 | |
Exceeded High | 20 | 24 | 27 | 24 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 22 | 27 | |
Scenario Percentage | 83% | 92% | 93% | 86% | 89% | 75% | 91% | 88% | 82% | 88% | 93% | |
Avg Max Increase | 6.97% | 6.68% | 6.43% | 7.09% | 5.72% | 6.56% | 6.14% | 5.15% | 7.45% | 8.99% | 3.90% | |
Max Increase | 18.63% | 18.68% | 21.06% | 17.32% | 15.48% | 18.80% | 15.99% | 19.44% | 24.42% | 31.70% | 11.34% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 15 | 21 | 19 | 18 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.71% | -1.41% | -1.77% | -2.13% | -1.55% | -1.45% | -1.71% | -1.95% | -3.17% | -0.79% | -0.95% | |
Max Decline | -3.42% | -5.77% | -5.59% | -9.88% | -5.97% | -6.84% | -9.57% | -8.28% | -16.43% | -3.32% | -3.78% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 9 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | |
2022 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
Action | Yes | No | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.