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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of May 09, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   36 36 36 38 42 43 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   17 11 19 20 16 23 24 21 28 26 19
Exceeded High   12 11 13 13 15 19 20 20 25 19 16
Scenario Percentage   71% 100% 68% 65% 94% 83% 83% 95% 89% 73% 84%
Avg Max Increase   5.64% 10.28% 10.51% 12.01% 7.93% 8.87% 13.56% 14.74% 9.68% 9.30% 8.21%
Max Increase   14.45% 44.15% 45.59% 42.20% 23.88% 17.26% 78.46% 45.18% 32.89% 22.55% 14.83%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 16 13 10 14 19 18 16 15 15 16
Avg Max Decline   -2.08% -1.93% -1.40% -0.46% -1.16% -2.26% -3.91% -3.11% -2.28% -2.43% -1.45%
Max Decline   -7.04% -7.77% -5.66% -2.57% -3.81% -10.60% -11.07% -9.16% -8.76% -9.84% -6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 8 7 3 4 5 14 12 5 6 3
2024 Contract Condition       Yes Yes   Yes   Yes     Yes
Action       No Yes   Yes   No     Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   36 36 36 38 42 43 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   19 25 17 18 26 20 21 24 16 19 26
Penetrated Low   15 17 14 12 20 15 15 12 11 13 13
Scenario Percentage   79% 68% 82% 67% 77% 75% 71% 50% 69% 68% 50%
Avg Max Decline   8.49% 7.27% 8.42% 9.76% 8.67% 7.03% 9.50% 9.08% 11.16% 8.65% 3.72%
Max Decline   19.41% 14.87% 14.91% 20.32% 26.64% 17.72% 32.80% 25.33% 41.57% 35.01% 10.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 14 19 19 17 14 19 16 11 11 10
Avg Max Increase   -2.58% -1.79% -3.47% -2.15% -3.76% -2.67% -2.46% -1.93% -2.85% -1.52% -0.97%
Max Increase   -6.06% -9.37% -12.61% -9.49% -12.67% -5.52% -7.84% -6.68% -11.78% -8.00% -2.39%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 9 11 10 13 9 6 9 7 6 3
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes     Yes   No   Yes Yes  
High 1156.4 1129.7 1059.6 1013.9 1004.2 1005.4 957.5 961.4 1031.0 1015.1 933.8 958.9
Low 1013.0 1015.5 909.1 914.6 898.7 899.3 865.0 850.4 897.5 883.2 873.3 870.1
Close/Last 1103.5 1015.5 927.0 972.6 986.3 923.8 951.2 942.9 1009.2 932.6 884.0 907.7

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