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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of May 08, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   32 33 34 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 45
Closed Higher   19 12 13 25 17 27 21 24 28 33 25
Exceeded High   10 10 12 21 15 23 17 21 24 27 14
Scenario Percentage   53% 83% 92% 84% 88% 85% 81% 88% 86% 82% 56%
Avg Max Increase   9.75% 9.22% 12.09% 10.70% 13.29% 11.81% 12.64% 19.51% 24.06% 18.34% 9.46%
Max Increase   34.24% 22.57% 27.79% 32.84% 43.03% 35.66% 32.67% 86.19% 85.89% 72.27% 26.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 15 20 15 16 16 17 18 18 16 16
Avg Max Decline   -4.16% -3.00% -0.79% -3.33% -1.08% -2.71% -2.44% -4.05% -2.44% -2.76% -2.75%
Max Decline   -10.81% -11.93% -6.65% -9.29% -4.50% -15.11% -13.35% -15.60% -7.88% -9.85% -8.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline   12 7 10 9 8 9 6 9 6 6 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes   Yes     Yes    
Action   No     No   No     No    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   32 33 34 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 45
Closed Lower   12 20 21 15 24 15 22 20 17 12 20
Penetrated Low   11 12 17 14 18 12 14 14 9 6 6
Scenario Percentage   92% 60% 81% 93% 75% 80% 64% 70% 53% 50% 30%
Avg Max Decline   9.30% 9.31% 8.48% 14.24% 13.43% 12.52% 13.78% 12.04% 11.20% 8.40% 8.01%
Max Decline   22.17% 21.59% 22.58% 48.57% 45.76% 22.13% 27.97% 44.17% 29.35% 18.95% 18.46%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 18 15 18 19 17 17 15 21 6 9
Avg Max Increase   -1.72% -2.41% -2.17% -0.84% -2.97% -4.29% -5.59% -3.94% -4.94% -2.00% -0.51%
Max Increase   -10.08% -8.34% -11.53% -11.96% -13.41% -16.66% -18.35% -23.48% -14.46% -4.79% -3.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 9 7 7 12 12 10 5 11 3 2
2024 Contract Condition     Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Not Yet
High 1559.10 1685.90 1645.30 1442.20 1338.90 1325.40 1306.00 1253.50 1155.00 1260.00 1122.00 999.50
Low 1411.40 1448.80 1385.60 1243.00 1250.00 1228.40 1196.00 1099.00 956.50 926.50 904.50 851.50
Close/Last 1506.80 1556.70 1385.60 1247.80 1299.00 1228.40 1265.10 1131.60 1020.40 1109.30 996.80 933.50

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