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ScenarioSM Study for November Natural Gas(NYM) as of May 10, 2021 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
Tested Years | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | |
Closed Higher | 10 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 16 | |
Exceeded High | 7 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 20 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 14 | |
Scenario Percentage | 70% | 71% | 93% | 78% | 100% | 85% | 64% | 50% | 83% | 87% | 88% | |
Avg Max Increase | 10.27% | 12.31% | 12.39% | 14.29% | 13.06% | 11.82% | 8.88% | 18.50% | 23.74% | 14.20% | 10.81% | |
Max Increase | 25.82% | 36.54% | 27.29% | 40.36% | 49.68% | 42.55% | 17.99% | 61.21% | 71.77% | 34.66% | 25.39% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 19 | 25 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 14 | 17 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.61% | -1.46% | -2.76% | -1.92% | -2.77% | -3.81% | -5.43% | -5.21% | -5.46% | -4.84% | -4.80% | |
Max Decline | -4.68% | -5.09% | -5.09% | -7.06% | -7.12% | -11.02% | -16.13% | -16.70% | -20.10% | -18.73% | -14.71% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 12 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 5 | |
2020 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.