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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Natural Gas(NYM) as of May 09, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   32 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
Closed Higher   21 17 16 15 17 17 14 10 12 15 17
Exceeded High   18 13 11 13 14 14 9 6 9 12 12
Scenario Percentage   86% 76% 69% 87% 82% 82% 64% 60% 75% 80% 71%
Avg Max Increase   10.41% 8.62% 8.19% 13.96% 9.02% 7.78% 11.00% 24.65% 25.07% 21.86% 14.29%
Max Increase   40.87% 24.57% 30.16% 44.89% 24.32% 17.16% 32.21% 36.90% 91.38% 61.63% 51.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 17 15 18 17 17 15 24 20 16 17
Avg Max Decline   -2.54% -1.38% -2.13% -3.02% -2.43% -4.11% -3.70% -1.94% -3.33% -4.06% -3.32%
Max Decline   -7.88% -4.92% -4.33% -11.95% -6.23% -13.58% -11.26% -5.51% -10.03% -17.28% -10.23%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 8 11 12 9 17 5 2 8 5 4
2024 Contract Condition       Yes       Yes        
Action       Yes       No        
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   32 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
Closed Lower   10 17 18 18 17 17 20 24 22 19 17
Penetrated Low   6 11 13 12 13 15 17 21 17 17 12
Scenario Percentage   60% 65% 72% 67% 76% 88% 85% 88% 77% 89% 71%
Avg Max Decline   4.98% 6.73% 8.07% 9.41% 9.60% 10.49% 13.92% 16.39% 17.74% 15.55% 10.51%
Max Decline   8.84% 14.17% 14.58% 19.01% 23.69% 19.10% 24.24% 32.58% 46.06% 31.64% 21.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 18 18 18 16 23 20 19 16 18 17
Avg Max Increase   -2.13% -3.43% -3.18% -2.36% -1.95% -6.09% -2.98% -3.47% -4.90% -6.11% -4.68%
Max Increase   -5.58% -12.86% -13.78% -5.75% -7.55% -21.08% -12.73% -11.97% -23.19% -15.47% -18.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 8 12 3 7 13 5 6 6 6 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes
High 3.573 3.268 3.281 3.239 3.220 3.292 3.168 3.325 3.317 2.626 2.717 2.177
Low 3.075 2.957 2.963 2.945 3.067 3.046 2.927 2.939 2.558 2.102 2.063 1.600
Close/Last 3.224 3.205 3.019 3.185 3.152 3.120 2.995 3.246 2.595 2.304 2.121 1.860

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