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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Coffee "C"(ICE) as of May 10, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 22 23 25 19 18 22 19 12 20 24
Exceeded High   17 20 17 17 15 12 15 9 9 15 14
Scenario Percentage   74% 91% 74% 68% 79% 67% 68% 47% 75% 75% 58%
Avg Max Increase   15.49% 12.10% 12.76% 16.51% 11.28% 19.71% 19.35% 23.25% 14.88% 9.25% 6.72%
Max Increase   54.56% 58.99% 42.09% 62.80% 24.35% 72.37% 122.35% 121.24% 43.01% 23.92% 21.36%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 16 17 13 20 17 18 11 16 11 10
Avg Max Decline   -1.51% -1.31% -2.10% -1.57% -4.16% -3.49% -2.80% -3.61% -5.56% -4.97% -1.27%
Max Decline   -7.46% -5.23% -8.89% -4.99% -11.67% -11.11% -11.79% -10.13% -16.43% -13.46% -3.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 5 9 6 14 6 5 9 12 8 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes        
Action   Yes Yes No Yes   Yes Not Yet        
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   22 23 22 20 26 27 23 26 33 25 21
Penetrated Low   18 21 18 18 22 22 21 22 29 17 11
Scenario Percentage   82% 91% 82% 90% 85% 81% 91% 85% 88% 68% 52%
Avg Max Decline   9.19% 8.68% 8.10% 8.50% 8.80% 8.39% 12.15% 12.44% 11.55% 9.70% 5.99%
Max Decline   22.31% 17.16% 21.60% 20.79% 16.50% 16.67% 33.77% 26.26% 30.78% 16.82% 14.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 14 15 16 18 18 21 20 16 13 11
Avg Max Increase   -2.28% -2.00% -3.93% -2.53% -2.47% -4.39% -4.39% -3.77% -4.64% -4.59% -2.86%
Max Increase   -6.26% -9.42% -14.78% -9.41% -9.42% -13.68% -21.21% -9.64% -39.51% -11.96% -8.01%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 4 9 7 6 14 10 7 7 8 4
2024 Contract Condition           Yes     Yes      
Action           No            
High 167.10 169.30 182.45 201.10 191.50 192.10 190.90 243.30 216.05      
Low 148.90 147.50 160.30 175.10 173.65 176.55 178.00 186.35 191.00      
Close/Last 149.60 166.55 181.50 187.00 189.45 182.50 187.60 214.80 199.95      

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