|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Sep 30, 2007 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
| Tested Years |
43 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
25 |
26 |
30 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
30 |
24 |
22 |
23 |
21 |
| Exceeded High |
23 |
25 |
22 |
14 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
19 |
14 |
16 |
16 |
| Scenario Percentage |
92% |
96% |
73% |
64% |
76% |
95% |
70% |
79% |
64% |
70% |
76% |
| Avg Max Increase |
11.21% |
11.25% |
8.50% |
9.44% |
10.01% |
9.92% |
9.12% |
14.07% |
18.18% |
14.33% |
6.42% |
| Max Increase |
36.44% |
53.71% |
60.00% |
24.20% |
30.26% |
20.46% |
24.52% |
48.78% |
51.10% |
70.42% |
21.95% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
20 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
21 |
21 |
19 |
22 |
20 |
15 |
12 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-2.44% |
-1.74% |
-1.83% |
-2.36% |
-2.55% |
-1.88% |
-2.49% |
-2.90% |
-1.91% |
-2.08% |
-1.32% |
| Max Decline |
-8.58% |
-7.38% |
-6.90% |
-15.00% |
-10.29% |
-5.49% |
-7.01% |
-11.29% |
-7.96% |
-10.87% |
-5.75% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
9 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
8 |
9 |
3 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Action |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
| Tested Years |
43 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
18 |
18 |
13 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
13 |
20 |
23 |
21 |
24 |
| Penetrated Low |
9 |
12 |
12 |
15 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
14 |
19 |
13 |
18 |
| Scenario Percentage |
50% |
67% |
92% |
68% |
82% |
63% |
77% |
70% |
83% |
62% |
75% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.24% |
8.68% |
4.95% |
7.35% |
8.70% |
6.57% |
11.85% |
11.89% |
8.12% |
8.39% |
16.89% |
| Max Decline |
11.97% |
32.33% |
12.22% |
13.82% |
23.72% |
20.37% |
31.84% |
22.78% |
17.30% |
16.35% |
63.42% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
10 |
15 |
22 |
16 |
13 |
18 |
20 |
20 |
18 |
14 |
14 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.85% |
-1.87% |
-4.63% |
-1.52% |
-1.87% |
-1.52% |
-1.17% |
-2.23% |
-2.14% |
-1.60% |
-2.98% |
| Max Increase |
-5.53% |
-5.68% |
-14.85% |
-6.76% |
-8.56% |
-8.80% |
-8.33% |
-9.74% |
-7.57% |
-4.40% |
-13.23% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
9 |
7 |
17 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
9 |
9 |
4 |
6 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
|
|
|
No |
|
|
Not Yet |
|
|
|
| High |
269.50 |
284.00 |
306.10 |
355.15 |
367.50 |
341.10 |
367.50 |
366.70 |
368.50 |
369.50 |
|
| Low |
243.50 |
239.00 |
261.50 |
303.50 |
312.50 |
320.00 |
343.00 |
305.00 |
321.00 |
365.40 |
|
| Close/Last |
254.00 |
271.95 |
306.10 |
347.05 |
333.20 |
340.30 |
362.15 |
339.70 |
364.00 |
369.15 |
|
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