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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Jun 30, 2017
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   18 21 26 24 26 30 22 20 23 30 20
Exceeded High   13 18 25 23 23 19 16 16 22 19 13
Scenario Percentage   72% 86% 96% 96% 88% 63% 73% 80% 96% 63% 65%
Avg Max Increase   9.73% 10.84% 11.08% 11.21% 11.16% 11.81% 10.16% 12.67% 9.03% 8.47% 7.77%
Max Increase   21.17% 40.41% 43.40% 38.84% 43.92% 62.57% 25.75% 35.70% 30.55% 24.78% 16.47%
Avg Days To Max Increase   22 19 16 15 14 14 13 21 16 17 18
Avg Max Decline   -2.06% -2.35% -1.48% -2.44% -2.44% -2.69% -2.59% -2.98% -2.17% -2.72% -1.91%
Max Decline   -5.37% -9.39% -8.60% -9.20% -10.00% -7.15% -15.57% -11.24% -8.78% -7.11% -5.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline   13 10 8 8 9 7 6 9 6 9 5
2017 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes         Yes    
Action     No   Yes         Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   27 24 19 20 19 15 22 25 22 14 25
Penetrated Low   20 18 12 12 13 12 17 20 14 13 15
Scenario Percentage   74% 75% 63% 60% 68% 80% 77% 80% 64% 93% 60%
Avg Max Decline   8.46% 9.18% 7.35% 6.93% 8.89% 6.11% 8.92% 9.48% 8.74% 9.54% 7.50%
Max Decline   30.54% 22.91% 17.27% 12.18% 31.92% 12.82% 18.69% 25.51% 24.31% 33.03% 24.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 18 17 9 16 20 17 14 21 15 18
Avg Max Increase   -1.29% -1.71% -0.44% -1.75% -1.77% -5.35% -1.91% -1.96% -3.33% -1.68% -1.24%
Max Increase   -6.68% -7.74% -2.97% -5.92% -6.10% -15.55% -7.17% -10.04% -13.83% -8.25% -6.95%
Avg Days to Max Increase   3 10 11 9 6 18 9 7 16 10 5
2017 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes      
Action   No   No   Yes Yes Yes Not Yet      
High 223.50 223.25 275.40 271.50 275.35 285.00 278.55 272.50 270.05 271.85    
Low 209.00 212.00 223.05 247.55 250.55 264.50 258.65 252.75 248.50 252.85    
Close/Last 223.50 222.80 264.50 252.20 275.30 273.60 268.25 261.75 259.30 271.10    

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