|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Jan 06, 2009 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
20 |
21 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
31 |
23 |
20 |
22 |
29 |
22 |
| Exceeded High |
17 |
18 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
14 |
17 |
20 |
19 |
16 |
| Scenario Percentage |
85% |
86% |
92% |
92% |
92% |
68% |
61% |
85% |
91% |
66% |
73% |
| Avg Max Increase |
7.35% |
10.39% |
13.07% |
12.83% |
11.83% |
11.39% |
10.08% |
11.68% |
9.89% |
10.32% |
8.01% |
| Max Increase |
21.17% |
40.41% |
43.40% |
38.84% |
41.33% |
62.57% |
25.75% |
35.70% |
22.29% |
32.22% |
26.67% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
19 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-2.48% |
-2.09% |
-1.38% |
-2.53% |
-2.41% |
-2.24% |
-2.13% |
-2.54% |
-1.95% |
-2.65% |
-1.65% |
| Max Decline |
-13.50% |
-9.39% |
-7.91% |
-9.20% |
-10.00% |
-7.15% |
-15.57% |
-11.24% |
-8.78% |
-7.11% |
-5.83% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
12 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
5 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
9 |
5 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
No |
|
Yes |
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
| Tested Years |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
25 |
24 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
21 |
25 |
23 |
15 |
23 |
| Penetrated Low |
17 |
18 |
14 |
10 |
12 |
12 |
15 |
20 |
15 |
13 |
19 |
| Scenario Percentage |
68% |
75% |
74% |
56% |
63% |
86% |
71% |
80% |
65% |
87% |
83% |
| Avg Max Decline |
7.41% |
8.06% |
6.16% |
6.60% |
8.88% |
5.90% |
7.99% |
8.73% |
8.01% |
11.46% |
22.10% |
| Max Decline |
17.60% |
22.61% |
17.27% |
12.18% |
31.92% |
15.35% |
15.29% |
25.51% |
24.31% |
33.03% |
67.73% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
15 |
17 |
16 |
9 |
16 |
21 |
16 |
13 |
20 |
15 |
17 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.05% |
-1.88% |
-0.88% |
-1.58% |
-1.92% |
-4.73% |
-1.63% |
-2.10% |
-3.25% |
-1.10% |
-3.33% |
| Max Increase |
-4.33% |
-7.74% |
-4.38% |
-5.92% |
-6.10% |
-15.55% |
-6.40% |
-10.04% |
-13.83% |
-8.25% |
-15.02% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
3 |
10 |
10 |
8 |
6 |
17 |
9 |
8 |
16 |
9 |
-27 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
|
No |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
| High |
360.10 |
335.00 |
319.40 |
338.40 |
383.65 |
393.30 |
400.15 |
392.90 |
390.60 |
408.00 |
358.70 |
| Low |
341.25 |
295.95 |
290.50 |
304.00 |
319.50 |
344.75 |
369.80 |
355.85 |
351.90 |
353.80 |
322.00 |
| Close/Last |
345.35 |
319.05 |
305.75 |
329.70 |
381.25 |
380.60 |
388.25 |
360.70 |
388.25 |
366.15 |
342.95 |
|
|
