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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 19 21 31 22 23 19 22 25 23 22
Exceeded High   17 13 20 22 18 13 12 19 22 21 16
Scenario Percentage   74% 68% 95% 71% 82% 57% 63% 86% 88% 91% 73%
Avg Max Increase   8.60% 9.55% 8.90% 7.14% 9.65% 15.24% 15.72% 11.50% 9.45% 11.55% 7.90%
Max Increase   22.59% 24.85% 30.92% 19.39% 26.95% 42.58% 62.39% 35.25% 39.26% 43.44% 22.18%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 23 18 17 20 20 22 19 15 16 18
Avg Max Decline   -2.32% -2.22% -1.28% -2.70% -3.71% -2.63% -2.39% -4.30% -2.46% -3.39% -2.19%
Max Decline   -14.06% -8.82% -5.01% -15.30% -9.82% -10.21% -6.80% -10.31% -9.34% -13.65% -8.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 10 5 11 15 8 12 10 8 8 4
2018 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes    
Action       Yes Yes Yes   Yes   No    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 25 23 12 23 22 25 23 20 22 23
Penetrated Low   17 19 13 11 16 17 18 17 12 12 13
Scenario Percentage   81% 76% 57% 92% 70% 77% 72% 74% 60% 55% 57%
Avg Max Decline   7.88% 8.86% 7.53% 10.56% 13.79% 10.21% 9.81% 10.56% 8.19% 7.80% 5.55%
Max Decline   17.75% 22.03% 18.21% 30.67% 51.51% 47.11% 31.61% 23.92% 16.93% 11.35% 27.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 13 17 20 20 17 16 17 17 11 16
Avg Max Increase   -1.95% -1.25% -1.76% -1.21% -1.88% -1.98% -2.10% -2.83% -1.73% -2.69% -1.45%
Max Increase   -6.88% -8.53% -8.27% -8.17% -8.95% -6.24% -9.84% -11.76% -5.95% -11.49% -4.96%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 5 11 11 7 7 4 10 10 7 4
2018 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes   Yes   Yes Yes
Action   Yes No       No   Yes   Yes Yes
High 277.45 274.90 270.45 274.30 295.80 315.25 319.75 327.90 320.20 332.20 330.95 327.20
Low 261.70 256.55 252.00 255.65 266.50 289.60 291.35 294.55 305.10 294.30 310.80 302.60
Close/Last 271.00 264.45 261.95 273.70 293.05 311.70 297.35 312.10 306.40 330.05 319.55 310.75

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