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ScenarioSM Study for October Lean Hogs(CME) as of Jan 01, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 30 | 26 | 31 | 20 | 24 | 29 | 22 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 30 | |
Exceeded High | 24 | 22 | 26 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 21 | 19 | 17 | |
Scenario Percentage | 80% | 85% | 84% | 80% | 83% | 69% | 91% | 76% | 91% | 86% | 57% | |
Avg Max Increase | 5.45% | 6.44% | 6.88% | 8.40% | 6.69% | 7.99% | 8.12% | 9.34% | 8.68% | 8.20% | 5.28% | |
Max Increase | 13.88% | 15.25% | 23.35% | 23.22% | 14.62% | 25.89% | 34.93% | 23.92% | 32.65% | 18.10% | 13.06% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 12 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 7 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.86% | -1.12% | -2.13% | -2.31% | -1.98% | -1.86% | -2.59% | -2.58% | -3.52% | -1.81% | -0.57% | |
Max Decline | -9.44% | -5.80% | -6.89% | -5.74% | -9.70% | -6.60% | -14.68% | -6.03% | -13.12% | -10.55% | -2.67% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 12 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
2018 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.