|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for June Gold(CMX) as of Feb 28, 2007 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
| Tested Years |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
| Closed Higher |
14 |
16 |
21 |
11 |
14 |
16 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
| Exceeded High |
10 |
13 |
13 |
9 |
12 |
13 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
10 |
9 |
| Scenario Percentage |
71% |
81% |
62% |
82% |
86% |
81% |
58% |
62% |
58% |
77% |
69% |
| Avg Max Increase |
14.16% |
12.17% |
8.92% |
7.44% |
13.53% |
11.93% |
5.07% |
3.84% |
9.46% |
7.35% |
4.03% |
| Max Increase |
39.45% |
36.10% |
22.87% |
14.68% |
103.28% |
59.53% |
9.60% |
7.05% |
24.08% |
14.45% |
15.74% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
18 |
19 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
16 |
13 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.76% |
-0.54% |
-1.28% |
-2.02% |
-1.35% |
-1.31% |
-2.29% |
-1.26% |
-0.99% |
-1.01% |
-1.01% |
| Max Decline |
-4.27% |
-3.52% |
-4.84% |
-6.23% |
-5.47% |
-6.10% |
-6.94% |
-2.79% |
-1.99% |
-5.25% |
-2.79% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
6 |
4 |
10 |
3 |
8 |
5 |
9 |
2 |
5 |
7 |
4 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
No |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Not Yet |
|
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
| Tested Years |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
| Closed Lower |
17 |
15 |
10 |
20 |
16 |
15 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
| Penetrated Low |
13 |
11 |
6 |
17 |
13 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
15 |
15 |
| Scenario Percentage |
76% |
73% |
60% |
85% |
81% |
87% |
80% |
89% |
90% |
79% |
79% |
| Avg Max Decline |
4.47% |
6.68% |
4.63% |
5.29% |
7.45% |
7.73% |
5.28% |
6.90% |
4.53% |
4.14% |
10.81% |
| Max Decline |
13.69% |
21.71% |
8.45% |
14.61% |
25.07% |
21.53% |
20.33% |
29.03% |
10.42% |
10.02% |
38.88% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
16 |
22 |
17 |
12 |
16 |
18 |
14 |
15 |
20 |
17 |
14 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-0.89% |
-0.65% |
-1.09% |
-2.11% |
-1.90% |
-0.55% |
-2.21% |
-1.84% |
-1.47% |
-2.63% |
-1.77% |
| Max Increase |
-4.49% |
-5.67% |
-2.06% |
-7.69% |
-5.81% |
-2.53% |
-12.92% |
-8.85% |
-7.23% |
-6.06% |
-6.29% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
7 |
13 |
15 |
9 |
12 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
11 |
12 |
6 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
| Action |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
|
|
|
| High |
701.6 |
685.0 |
667.0 |
630.0 |
668.0 |
668.9 |
667.5 |
699.0 |
|
|
|
| Low |
636.0 |
636.5 |
594.0 |
580.0 |
628.5 |
627.0 |
615.8 |
655.1 |
|
|
|
| Close/Last |
665.7 |
652.5 |
621.4 |
624.5 |
665.5 |
650.4 |
664.2 |
678.8 |
|
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