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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Feeder Cattle(CME) as of May 08, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   24 39 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   14 24 32 21 23 19 26 30 25 26 18
Exceeded High   13 22 24 16 18 14 23 27 22 19 15
Scenario Percentage   93% 92% 75% 76% 78% 74% 88% 90% 88% 73% 83%
Avg Max Increase   5.67% 4.62% 3.79% 3.83% 4.29% 4.20% 4.18% 4.13% 4.66% 5.27% 2.79%
Max Increase   11.53% 9.99% 8.89% 10.58% 8.15% 10.93% 8.72% 13.94% 9.66% 12.15% 6.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 19 18 14 17 20 17 16 17 12 11
Avg Max Decline   -1.82% -0.90% -1.30% -1.30% -0.94% -1.54% -1.77% -1.59% -1.42% -1.60% -0.63%
Max Decline   -4.71% -2.55% -4.24% -5.68% -2.46% -3.54% -4.91% -6.72% -3.51% -4.58% -3.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 9 11 8 6 9 11 9 9 4 1
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes No     Yes Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   24 39 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   10 15 12 24 22 25 19 15 20 19 27
Penetrated Low   6 11 8 16 21 16 13 8 16 14 17
Scenario Percentage   60% 73% 67% 67% 95% 64% 68% 53% 80% 74% 63%
Avg Max Decline   3.31% 5.98% 5.28% 5.10% 4.60% 7.64% 6.79% 6.75% 8.29% 8.95% 5.62%
Max Decline   8.48% 10.47% 15.90% 15.39% 15.76% 18.71% 17.23% 11.37% 21.40% 21.67% 14.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 14 15 13 18 16 15 19 17 13 12
Avg Max Increase   -1.93% -1.61% -1.71% -1.09% -1.69% -1.54% -1.17% -1.85% -1.94% -0.91% -0.50%
Max Increase   -4.95% -4.71% -6.32% -2.92% -10.72% -4.67% -5.68% -3.59% -6.37% -3.45% -1.71%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 8 11 9 9 13 5 10 7 6 2
2024 Contract Condition             Yes Yes       Yes
Action             Yes Yes       Yes
High 234.650 245.830 253.380 256.400 262.050 273.600 268.600 248.200 232.450 247.650 260.800 258.330
Low 234.450 227.780 237.030 248.730 252.580 258.500 240.430 219.850 213.700 228.930 246.830 243.780
Close/Last 234.650 245.530 253.230 253.530 260.980 265.450 243.530 226.680 228.900 246.150 253.730 247.130

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