MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for March Cotton(ICE) as of May 09, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
| Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 27 | 19 | 24 | 20 | 21 | 17 | 26 | 23 | 32 | 24 | 26 | |
| Exceeded High | 20 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 18 | 28 | 17 | 16 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 74% | 79% | 75% | 85% | 62% | 76% | 73% | 78% | 88% | 71% | 62% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 6.11% | 8.38% | 8.74% | 8.93% | 15.21% | 12.92% | 8.54% | 10.76% | 11.75% | 9.46% | 4.42% | |
| Max Increase | 20.21% | 20.37% | 28.56% | 43.20% | 47.88% | 51.25% | 32.10% | 25.12% | 45.72% | 29.29% | 16.96% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 9 | 3 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -2.54% | -2.76% | -1.84% | -1.99% | -2.02% | -2.31% | -1.75% | -2.33% | -2.77% | -2.80% | -0.46% | |
| Max Decline | -9.75% | -8.56% | -10.52% | -6.21% | -5.29% | -5.87% | -7.74% | -6.83% | -11.97% | -7.71% | -7.38% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 14 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 1 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Not Yet | |||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
