Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for November Crude Oil(NYM) as of Dec 27, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years   36 36 39 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 41
Closed Higher   17 18 19 24 27 28 20 21 26 22 22
Exceeded High   14 18 16 21 25 23 16 19 24 18 17
Scenario Percentage   82% 100% 84% 88% 93% 82% 80% 90% 92% 82% 77%
Avg Max Increase   9.35% 10.02% 12.60% 10.64% 9.41% 8.47% 10.35% 10.10% 12.67% 11.67% 5.82%
Max Increase   14.39% 26.10% 30.02% 23.67% 21.11% 30.62% 19.30% 21.00% 85.48% 52.07% 11.78%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 19 16 20 17 14 16 14 19 14 12
Avg Max Decline   -1.62% -1.75% -2.03% -1.90% -2.80% -2.26% -1.93% -2.47% -3.03% -3.58% -2.50%
Max Decline   -7.78% -7.26% -9.78% -13.57% -10.64% -6.56% -7.56% -14.99% -15.09% -14.66% -14.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 8 7 10 9 10 6 8 9 9 3
2023 Contract Condition   Yes         Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action   No         No   Yes Yes Yes Not Yet
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years   36 36 39 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 41
Closed Lower   19 18 19 16 12 13 21 20 14 19 19
Penetrated Low   16 12 10 9 7 6 15 14 11 9 12
Scenario Percentage   84% 67% 53% 56% 58% 46% 71% 70% 79% 47% 63%
Avg Max Decline   13.11% 14.60% 17.37% 13.03% 12.95% 7.28% 9.04% 11.96% 13.60% 16.05% 8.08%
Max Decline   29.15% 34.08% 46.53% 46.58% 25.77% 15.18% 22.02% 36.28% 27.64% 40.81% 31.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 17 19 13 14 20 17 16 15 13 8
Avg Max Increase   -1.21% -1.86% -2.42% -2.38% -5.25% -3.44% -1.23% -2.46% -2.86% -1.80% -1.37%
Max Increase   -7.37% -9.13% -6.26% -7.13% -12.06% -7.78% -5.78% -8.90% -16.89% -6.43% -4.83%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 8 8 8 9 17 4 9 11 8 2
2023 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes        
Action     No Yes Yes Yes   No        
High 80.18 81.93 80.27 80.50 78.34 78.77 79.85 74.01 73.17 81.01 83.49 95.03
Low 72.35 72.60 70.93 72.49 71.72 64.29 72.03 63.50 66.67 69.53 77.32 82.78
Close/Last 76.90 78.36 77.81 77.20 75.07 74.02 74.61 67.64 70.58 80.84 82.96 90.79

Banner

Login

Main Menu

MRCI Online

Free Links

Newsflash

The world will still run for decades on fossil-fuel energy --- crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas.  Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?  Just since 2008, crude oil traded at $147/barrel, collapsed to -$40.32/barrel in 2020, ran to higher than $130 in early 2022, and the traded less than half that in May!

MRCI's newest special report is complete with seasonal patterns & weekly charts: for each delivery month and several spreads against each; for product spreads; for cash & basis; and for 3/2/1 and 2/1/1 crack spreads.  Better yet, this 284-page volume presents 190 seasonal & spread strategies to anticipate throughout the next 12-months. Order your copy today! https://www.mrci.com/products/energy