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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for October Crude Oil(NYM) as of Dec 27, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   34 37 38 40 40 40 41 41 41 41 41
Closed Higher   13 17 19 20 23 27 27 20 21 26 22
Exceeded High   8 14 19 18 21 25 22 15 18 23 13
Scenario Percentage   62% 82% 100% 90% 91% 93% 81% 75% 86% 88% 59%
Avg Max Increase   8.51% 9.68% 10.49% 11.84% 10.72% 9.72% 9.10% 11.12% 10.68% 11.39% 8.78%
Max Increase   13.15% 15.18% 26.15% 34.22% 27.44% 22.54% 30.51% 19.08% 21.40% 59.28% 23.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase   21 14 17 14 18 17 15 17 15 13 13
Avg Max Decline   -0.99% -1.80% -1.61% -2.13% -1.88% -2.97% -2.35% -2.20% -1.97% -2.30% -0.81%
Max Decline   -1.88% -8.05% -7.95% -10.00% -13.93% -10.86% -7.80% -8.52% -10.10% -13.87% -4.69%
Avg Days to Max Decline   4 6 8 7 9 10 9 6 7 5 3
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes         Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes No         No   Yes Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   34 37 38 40 40 40 41 41 41 41 41
Closed Lower   20 20 19 19 17 13 14 21 20 15 19
Penetrated Low   17 18 12 11 9 7 7 15 14 11 8
Scenario Percentage   85% 90% 63% 58% 53% 54% 50% 71% 70% 73% 42%
Avg Max Decline   11.90% 12.86% 14.97% 17.19% 13.54% 11.81% 7.57% 9.84% 12.41% 11.61% 8.71%
Max Decline   36.38% 30.25% 35.26% 48.49% 48.97% 27.49% 15.47% 22.74% 37.19% 27.31% 21.61%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 18 17 19 14 14 22 17 16 10 11
Avg Max Increase   -2.00% -1.97% -2.06% -3.25% -3.46% -4.43% -3.32% -1.55% -2.62% -1.59% -1.10%
Max Increase   -6.61% -11.57% -7.39% -9.81% -8.35% -13.65% -8.32% -5.26% -8.88% -4.90% -2.72%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 8 8 8 9 5 13 4 10 7 2
2023 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes      
Action       No Yes Yes No   No      
High 80.33 80.94 82.72 80.58 81.03 78.88 79.33 80.64 74.90 74.60 81.50 84.16
Low 69.74 72.59 73.10 71.11 72.78 71.98 64.42 72.50 64.58 66.83 69.72 77.59
Close/Last 70.57 77.40 78.80 78.32 77.73 75.56 74.51 75.15 67.92 70.72 81.32 83.63

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