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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 09, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   38 39 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 41
Closed Higher   27 20 21 25 23 20 18 19 20 22 23
Exceeded High   22 14 19 22 17 17 12 17 20 18 18
Scenario Percentage   81% 70% 90% 88% 74% 85% 67% 89% 100% 82% 78%
Avg Max Increase   7.57% 9.66% 8.11% 9.35% 10.98% 7.92% 11.13% 13.13% 13.06% 15.84% 10.38%
Max Increase   30.99% 20.17% 19.95% 52.11% 37.03% 23.10% 19.04% 26.67% 35.74% 50.88% 36.34%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 14 18 21 14 14 23 15 18 13 11
Avg Max Decline   -1.41% -1.05% -2.01% -2.51% -1.73% -2.32% -2.35% -2.49% -2.90% -3.81% -1.44%
Max Decline   -4.76% -4.14% -12.26% -13.02% -8.69% -12.12% -8.10% -8.69% -10.65% -13.62% -4.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 6 9 10 8 5 9 5 10 7 3
2024 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes
Action   No   Yes Yes Yes No       Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   38 39 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 41
Closed Lower   11 18 19 15 17 18 22 22 21 19 18
Penetrated Low   6 13 14 10 9 14 21 19 12 12 10
Scenario Percentage   55% 72% 74% 67% 53% 78% 95% 86% 57% 63% 56%
Avg Max Decline   6.17% 7.89% 9.42% 12.41% 16.01% 12.89% 13.58% 15.23% 18.78% 20.66% 12.75%
Max Decline   12.93% 18.16% 31.93% 26.53% 45.37% 49.17% 43.57% 35.76% 48.16% 61.18% 55.18%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 16 18 20 17 14 18 17 18 13 12
Avg Max Increase   -2.60% -1.06% -1.91% -2.04% -2.66% -2.05% -2.80% -2.94% -3.90% -3.38% -2.86%
Max Increase   -6.17% -6.82% -8.81% -11.96% -12.63% -11.35% -8.69% -13.41% -12.44% -12.37% -8.71%
Avg Days to Max Increase   17 3 9 12 7 5 7 9 11 10 3
2024 Contract Condition     Yes         Yes Yes Yes    
Action     Yes         Yes Yes No    
High 76.27 76.59 72.02 70.75 78.40 80.43 85.75 84.68 81.50 76.53 79.09 79.62
Low 64.22 70.32 65.64 65.41 68.44 75.83 79.87 76.20 72.65 68.57 69.79 71.49
Close/Last 71.89 72.49 66.23 69.52 78.37 79.81 82.78 78.93 75.85 72.01 75.71 78.26

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