MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for March Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 09, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan |
| Tested Years | 38 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | |
| Closed Higher | 25 | 27 | 20 | 21 | 26 | 23 | 22 | 19 | 19 | 22 | 22 | |
| Exceeded High | 24 | 22 | 14 | 19 | 23 | 17 | 19 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 12 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 96% | 81% | 70% | 90% | 88% | 74% | 86% | 63% | 89% | 95% | 55% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 8.75% | 7.42% | 9.92% | 8.51% | 10.14% | 11.64% | 7.90% | 11.85% | 13.94% | 10.84% | 8.15% | |
| Max Increase | 18.96% | 30.64% | 20.21% | 19.96% | 57.94% | 40.70% | 23.66% | 22.62% | 28.40% | 28.03% | 19.27% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 21 | 14 | 14 | 23 | 15 | 14 | 13 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -2.31% | -1.96% | -0.98% | -2.15% | -2.64% | -1.97% | -2.33% | -2.57% | -2.71% | -2.23% | -1.78% | |
| Max Decline | -9.61% | -5.08% | -4.51% | -12.94% | -13.33% | -10.27% | -12.15% | -7.76% | -9.26% | -10.82% | -5.85% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 9 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 3 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | ||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
