MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for February Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 09, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Tested Years | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | |
| Closed Higher | 21 | 25 | 27 | 21 | 21 | 27 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 22 | |
| Exceeded High | 20 | 24 | 22 | 15 | 19 | 25 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 17 | 19 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 95% | 96% | 81% | 71% | 90% | 93% | 77% | 81% | 65% | 89% | 86% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 9.78% | 8.90% | 8.18% | 10.31% | 8.88% | 10.12% | 10.62% | 8.36% | 12.43% | 14.73% | 9.36% | |
| Max Increase | 22.30% | 19.47% | 31.97% | 19.87% | 21.18% | 63.08% | 43.64% | 24.44% | 27.15% | 31.79% | 16.99% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 14 | 14 | 23 | 12 | 12 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.43% | -2.32% | -1.74% | -0.87% | -2.23% | -2.54% | -2.82% | -2.62% | -2.33% | -2.82% | -1.27% | |
| Max Decline | -12.87% | -9.77% | -5.06% | -5.01% | -13.43% | -13.67% | -12.70% | -12.01% | -7.14% | -9.95% | -6.17% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 11 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
| Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | |||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
