|
ScenarioSM Study for March Cocoa(ICE) as of May 10, 2024 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 22 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 27 | 21 | 15 | 23 | 23 | 18 | 24 | |
Exceeded High | 19 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 17 | |
Scenario Percentage | 86% | 90% | 80% | 86% | 56% | 71% | 87% | 78% | 74% | 89% | 71% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.31% | 10.38% | 7.99% | 10.28% | 8.99% | 7.85% | 9.40% | 10.36% | 14.30% | 15.51% | 6.26% | |
Max Increase | 20.60% | 21.23% | 25.45% | 23.81% | 19.12% | 26.62% | 21.83% | 26.12% | 58.58% | 66.90% | 26.14% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 9 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.45% | -3.36% | -2.60% | -4.01% | -2.69% | -2.80% | -2.38% | -3.42% | -3.68% | -2.20% | -0.93% | |
Max Decline | -7.11% | -10.55% | -13.93% | -12.19% | -6.80% | -9.09% | -7.01% | -9.48% | -13.27% | -6.59% | -4.76% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |
2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved. |
---|
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.