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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Dec 27, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years   25 29 29 29 32 32 32 34 34 34 35
Closed Higher   14 16 15 18 20 22 15 18 23 19 20
Exceeded High   12 14 14 17 18 18 13 17 22 14 14
Scenario Percentage   86% 88% 93% 94% 90% 82% 87% 94% 96% 74% 70%
Avg Max Increase   8.76% 11.69% 13.84% 11.84% 10.69% 10.83% 9.90% 10.14% 14.00% 16.00% 7.51%
Max Increase   16.86% 25.51% 41.31% 32.80% 22.25% 33.88% 17.35% 19.80% 86.32% 53.95% 14.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase   13 16 14 17 18 16 16 16 19 16 16
Avg Max Decline   -2.21% -1.90% -2.92% -2.47% -3.21% -2.38% -1.69% -2.46% -3.01% -2.11% -2.12%
Max Decline   -8.69% -7.31% -9.86% -13.88% -9.24% -6.57% -4.93% -14.47% -13.69% -13.31% -12.61%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 6 6 8 7 8 6 6 8 8 3
2023 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action   No   No     No   Yes Yes Yes Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years   25 29 29 29 32 32 32 34 34 34 35
Closed Lower   11 13 14 11 12 10 17 16 11 15 15
Penetrated Low   7 7 6 5 5 5 10 10 9 10 10
Scenario Percentage   64% 54% 43% 45% 42% 50% 59% 63% 82% 67% 67%
Avg Max Decline   18.38% 15.61% 14.63% 15.70% 9.25% 10.98% 9.37% 11.57% 13.14% 14.23% 11.30%
Max Decline   35.56% 25.56% 39.79% 43.54% 23.42% 23.02% 20.92% 33.34% 28.79% 49.34% 40.72%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 16 14 16 7 19 17 13 17 19 17
Avg Max Increase   -1.87% -3.63% -3.04% -2.77% -4.93% -3.94% -1.24% -1.56% -3.62% -3.35% -1.99%
Max Increase   -7.05% -7.63% -6.39% -6.52% -16.00% -7.61% -2.99% -6.20% -21.51% -15.64% -10.83%
Avg Days to Max Increase   1 9 6 9 3 9 4 6 13 14 3
2023 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes   Yes        
Action     No   Yes No   No        
High 85.49 87.36 84.72 85.05 82.78 83.22 83.51 77.94 77.26 84.61 86.78 95.35
Low 75.83 77.96 75.04 76.02 76.25 69.58 75.50 70.25 70.97 73.87 81.33 86.15
Close/Last 82.29 83.52 81.65 81.79 79.95 77.91 78.08 71.63 74.91 84.46 86.23 92.20

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