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ScenarioSM Study for December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 10, 2021 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
Tested Years | 22 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | |
Closed Higher | 12 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 13 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 18 | |
Exceeded High | 11 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 13 | 13 | |
Scenario Percentage | 92% | 86% | 100% | 94% | 95% | 84% | 85% | 94% | 95% | 72% | 72% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.27% | 9.52% | 10.59% | 10.61% | 10.69% | 10.21% | 9.87% | 10.19% | 14.34% | 16.41% | 7.22% | |
Max Increase | 16.86% | 20.24% | 25.17% | 24.34% | 22.25% | 33.88% | 17.35% | 19.80% | 86.32% | 53.95% | 14.72% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 13 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 15 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.18% | -2.00% | -3.22% | -2.64% | -3.21% | -2.36% | -1.85% | -2.62% | -2.44% | -2.26% | -2.21% | |
Max Decline | -8.69% | -7.31% | -9.86% | -13.88% | -9.24% | -6.57% | -4.93% | -14.47% | -13.69% | -13.31% | -12.61% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 3 | |
2020 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.