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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 09, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   26 30 30 30 32 33 33 34 34 35 35
Closed Higher   12 20 20 15 15 14 17 16 18 22 20
Exceeded High   12 18 17 11 13 9 14 15 17 19 17
Scenario Percentage   100% 90% 85% 73% 87% 64% 82% 94% 94% 86% 85%
Avg Max Increase   8.89% 9.23% 8.21% 11.29% 8.63% 8.26% 10.85% 12.90% 15.37% 14.10% 9.12%
Max Increase   17.73% 25.53% 16.40% 29.40% 20.85% 14.55% 23.40% 30.13% 55.71% 41.86% 20.26%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 18 19 15 12 19 15 18 15 15 17
Avg Max Decline   -1.39% -1.98% -1.98% -1.64% -1.56% -1.79% -2.26% -3.01% -2.83% -2.61% -1.63%
Max Decline   -5.67% -12.64% -12.14% -6.48% -7.38% -3.68% -9.05% -13.99% -11.97% -16.18% -7.59%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 6 8 9 5 4 6 8 5 7 2
2024 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes No       Yes Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   26 30 30 30 32 33 33 34 34 35 35
Closed Lower   14 10 10 15 17 19 16 18 16 13 15
Penetrated Low   7 7 8 10 14 16 13 10 10 6 7
Scenario Percentage   50% 70% 80% 67% 82% 84% 81% 56% 63% 46% 47%
Avg Max Decline   8.03% 10.79% 11.14% 13.19% 13.25% 14.25% 15.49% 13.57% 16.44% 20.45% 13.00%
Max Decline   17.56% 29.33% 26.73% 44.80% 47.72% 39.33% 38.98% 27.20% 55.01% 67.78% 39.35%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 17 20 14 13 18 17 16 14 20 11
Avg Max Increase   -0.98% -1.26% -2.05% -3.64% -1.39% -2.42% -1.95% -4.46% -2.68% -4.76% -6.42%
Max Increase   -2.55% -5.45% -10.80% -16.88% -8.96% -5.87% -11.77% -11.85% -7.09% -10.78% -38.14%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 7 13 12 4 6 7 10 8 14 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes         Yes Yes Yes      
Action   No         Yes Yes No      
High 80.67 75.83 75.14 81.87 83.83 88.51 87.62 84.92 80.80 83.19 82.44 87.07
Low 73.76 69.35 69.55 72.37 79.38 83.05 78.99 76.54 73.38 74.80 76.18 80.62
Close/Last 76.05 70.20 73.51 81.76 83.12 85.33 82.55 79.71 76.64 79.95 81.18 87.00

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