MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for May Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 09, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
| Tested Years | 19 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 35 | |
| Closed Higher | 13 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 22 | |
| Exceeded High | 10 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 18 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 77% | 93% | 90% | 90% | 78% | 81% | 67% | 88% | 94% | 90% | 82% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 12.09% | 8.60% | 9.17% | 8.15% | 9.61% | 8.91% | 8.50% | 11.15% | 13.97% | 16.65% | 10.49% | |
| Max Increase | 32.73% | 16.30% | 24.89% | 17.56% | 29.43% | 21.10% | 15.07% | 23.89% | 32.98% | 58.37% | 42.01% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 14 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.36% | -0.87% | -1.59% | -1.94% | -1.33% | -1.53% | -1.63% | -2.27% | -3.05% | -2.90% | -1.51% | |
| Max Decline | -5.39% | -5.44% | -11.46% | -12.32% | -7.43% | -8.00% | -3.80% | -9.12% | -13.71% | -12.55% | -4.76% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 11 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
| Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | |||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
