MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 10, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Tested Years | 26 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 35 | 35 | 35 | |
| Closed Higher | 17 | 19 | 20 | 14 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 17 | |
| Exceeded High | 16 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 15 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 94% | 95% | 80% | 93% | 90% | 90% | 72% | 74% | 71% | 94% | 88% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 10.33% | 9.64% | 10.28% | 9.10% | 10.02% | 9.14% | 11.43% | 9.52% | 9.67% | 11.38% | 8.97% | |
| Max Increase | 22.66% | 19.57% | 34.33% | 17.69% | 27.26% | 21.33% | 30.49% | 22.04% | 15.86% | 23.85% | 17.90% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 20 | 19 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 21 | 15 | 16 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.73% | -2.14% | -1.38% | -1.83% | -1.98% | -2.65% | -1.80% | -1.71% | -1.61% | -2.55% | -1.52% | |
| Max Decline | -13.01% | -8.68% | -5.58% | -6.14% | -13.38% | -12.94% | -10.08% | -9.44% | -4.38% | -9.25% | -6.48% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 12 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 4 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
| Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | |||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
