MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 10, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
| Tested Years | 18 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 35 | |
| Closed Higher | 9 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 20 | 18 | 17 | |
| Exceeded High | 8 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 13 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 89% | 94% | 95% | 79% | 93% | 89% | 95% | 72% | 75% | 67% | 76% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 11.66% | 10.67% | 9.90% | 10.86% | 8.94% | 9.65% | 9.51% | 11.89% | 9.39% | 9.99% | 8.49% | |
| Max Increase | 29.61% | 22.17% | 20.51% | 33.83% | 17.60% | 22.05% | 24.00% | 31.02% | 22.44% | 15.99% | 12.96% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 19 | 20 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.16% | -1.66% | -2.37% | -1.46% | -1.84% | -2.10% | -2.85% | -2.03% | -2.44% | -1.70% | -1.48% | |
| Max Decline | -8.94% | -12.94% | -8.86% | -5.89% | -6.13% | -13.67% | -13.19% | -11.24% | -10.89% | -4.71% | -4.04% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 3 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Action | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | ||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
